First, we all know what King Felix is capable of. He already has one Cy Young award under his belt and just turned 25. Still, at 25, Felix has 1,176.2 innings on his electric right arm. Does that mean anything? Well, no not really but given the injuries that have ruined careers, like those of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, one has to look at the mileage on the arm as a possible negative. We have seen Johan Santana, arguably the best pitcher in baseball only a few years ago, miss significant time due to injuries the last couple of years. Santana is probably the best comparable to Hernandez right now. Is that saying Hernandez will suffer similar injuries? No. But with that many innings on an arm that young one has to proceed with caution. Could Felix come into the Bronx and dominate? Yes. For how long? Well thats a risk you take with every pitcher, including the young pitchers you would be trading away.
Speaking of the young kids, let's take a look at them and see if you would include them in a deal.
Jesus Monetero was traded away last year in the Cliff Lee deal only to see that trade fall apart after the Mariners reneged on the deal and sent Lee to Texas. So, Montero stayed a Yankee. So far this year, Montero has picked up where he left off in AAA, hitting a cool .480 (12 hits in 5 games) with a homer and 2 RBI and 3 doubles. The kid is flat out raking. We all knew he could hit but his defense has been called into question time and time again. Is it awful? No. I think he would be better than Jarrod Saltalamachia behind the dish. I also think his offense could overcome his defensive lapses. We are talking about possible 30 homers and .300 AVG from the catching position, or DH.
Manny Banuelos was the darling of Spring Training this year. He is a lefty which is always a premium when it comes to pitching. He also has a great fastball and command to go along with three other plus pitches. He rocketed up prospect rankings this offseason and is considered the Yankees #2 prospect behind Montero. Banuelos has the makings of an ace. The only question seems to be on his height as he is only 5'10" but the arm is there. Man-Ban has the makings to be a Hernandez-type pitcher in his own right but that is only potential right now.
Dellin Betances is one of the most intriguing prospects in all of baseball. He has a great frame at 6'8" and 255 lbs. He had some trouble finding the strike zone but seemed to put it together last year. He could be an elite starter or future closer because of the fastball and command of two-three other pitches on a given night.
Ivan Nova has been kicking around the Bronx for the second year in a row. His problem seems to be getting through the order the second and third time through. However, he possesses some excellent stuff, a low 90's fastball and decent breaking balls. He could be a #3 starter is he puts it together, or a swing man out of the bullpen. He should be a long term major leaguer regardless.
The Yankees, in this deal, would be trading 4 of their top 10 prospects, a hefty price for any player. Personally, I would not do this trade. I just don't feel good trading away two potential frontline starters and a 30 homer bat as young as Montero's. I have been wary about trading for young power arms with a lot of innings on them for some time now, and this is no different. Yes, King Felix is probably the best pitcher in the game now but I don't know if that warrants depleting 4 of the top 10 prospects from a highly ranked farm system. Montero, for example, was ranked in the top 5 prospects in all of baseball. I could see dealing Montero for Felix but not with Banuelos and Betances.
Let's say the Yankees do make that deal and Felix wins 20-23 games for a few years. Let's say, for arguments sake, Montero hits .300 and 30 for the same amount of years and that Banuelos wins 12-15 games a year when he is ready and Betances wins a similar number. Let's also say Nova wins 10 games a year over that same span. Would the Yankees be better off with Montero, Banuelos, Betances, and Nova or with just Hernandez?
As a free agent I would shower King Felix with dollars to pitch in the Bronx. As for making that trade, no, I'll keep the kids. It's not like King Felix would mean the difference between not making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Give me the kids and I'll hedge my bets on them winning down the road.
What would you do? Leave a comment and let the debate begin.
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