Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Is There a Future for the NY Mets?

Much has been made about the Mets financial situation this offseason as the Bernie Madoff scandal has now found its way into the Mets Clubhouse. It is not known yet if the Mets really did profit from the Madoff mess but the questions and subsequent lawsuit for $1 billion surely has cast a cloud over the Mets 2011 season. One thing is certain, however, the Mets financial situation is not good and it is going to affect the team moving forward.

Mets owners Jeff and Fred Wilpon have never been very good when it has come to making financial decisions for the Mets between the foul lines. We remember Bobby Bonilla, a huge free agent signing by the Mets prior to the 1992 season. Bonilla played 5 seasons for the Mets before being shipped off to the Orioles during the 1995 season. Bonilla never brought the Mets to the promised land as expected. And now, Bobby Bonilla is still drawing a paycheck from the Mets who still owe him around $30 million. Yes, that's right, $30 million more is owed to a man who hasn't played for the team in over 15 years. Check that, Bobby Bo made a cameo for the Mets in 1999 where he hit a whopping .160 in 60 games. Not that it matters, the Mets, a team that is going to have trouble coughing up the dough to sign their own key free agents like Jose Reyes let alone coughing it up for impact free agents.

Because of the financial hangups the Mets have been forced to look at R.A. Dickey (which has been one of the best free agent signings in the past decade for the Mets because of his newfound command of a knuckleball), Chris Young (looking good so far but he is no Cliff Lee), and Chris Capuano (jury is still out). The Mets need pitching and they have not been able to address that in a couple of offseasons now. Why? Well, Johan Santana is one reason. The Mets gave Santana a six year $137.5 million contract with a full no trade clause after stealing him from the Twins. However, Santana has been hurt the last two seasons and it isn't known when he will return or how effective he is going to be when he does get back. I can't fault the Mets for giving Santana that contract. However, with about $60 million still owed to him and a no trade clause that he likely won't waive, the Mets, especially given their monetary limitations, are stuck right now. They can't afford to get an arm that can offset the loss of their ace like the Phillies, Yankees, or Red Sox. Right now the Mets are a small market team with a big market payroll and playing in a big time market. It also doesn't help that the huge contract they doled out to Carlos Beltran, who is owed $20 million this season, has not brought in the returns the Mets were expecting when they outbid the Yankees (or was it Beltran begging the Yankees to sign him by offering to sign for less money) for his services in before the 2005 season.

Santana and Beltran were legit stars when the Mets signed them. But because of health issues they are now albatrosses and not leaders on the field. Add in Jason Bay and his contract, which the MEts should never have offered given his age and peripherals, and the Mets roster has three players making a huge portion of the money who won't even be on the field. And that isn't counting Oliver Perez's $12 million he is getting NOT to pitch, and Luis Castillo's money for him to hang around the minors in someones organization when he signs with someone. That is over $60 million in players NOT playing for the Mets right now.

It all comes back to poor decisions. Poor drafts, poor prospect development, poor free agent signings, and poor play which drives the fans away are all hurting the Mets. First they wrongly blamed Willie Randolph but GM Omar Minaya continued to sink the Mets ship with some of the strangest free agent signings in the history of the game. These include Bay, Perez, and Castillo but it goes a lot deeper. The Mets have absolutely neglected their farm system. Let's take a quick look at Mets draft picks since 2000:

2000: Billy Traber, LHP. Traber was taken 16th overall in the 2000 draft. Traber was traded to the Indians for Roberto Alomar in 2001.

2001: Aaron Heilman, RHP. At least he suited up for the Mets. Mets fans hate this guy with a passion and he is hopping around the majors as a middle reliever, now with the Diamondbacks and showing some control to boot. At least the Mets snagged David Wright in this draft so they get a pass.

2002: Scott Kazmir, LHP. Once considered the jewel of the Mets farm system, he was infamously traded for good-for-nothing Victor Zambrano. Kazmir has lost some of the zip off of his fastball and was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year.

2003: Lastings Milledge, OF. Ahh, good ol' Lastings. He was supposed to be the next Alex Ochoa, I mean Carlos Gomez, I mean, wait, who the hell was this guy supposed to be? Oh, he is the first Lastings Milledge. Never had the maturity to handle the pressures and it showed, unlike his talent. He has been let go by the Nationals and Pirates and just got designated for assignment by the White Sox.

2004: Philip Humber, RHP. He was part of the package to get Johan Santana so the Mets get a pass for getting someone to take this garbage. He was taken third overall so that fact that this pick was wasted on this guy still hurts. Jeff Niemann was taken one pick later by the Rays, Homer Bailey #7 overall to the Reds, Neil Walker #11 overall to the Pirates, Jared Weaver #12 to the Angels, Billy Butler #14 to the Royals, Stephen Drew #15 to the D'Backs, and Phil Hughes #23 to the Yankees. The Mets might have gotten the Twins to take Humber but they whiffed big time.

2005: Mike Pelfrey, RHP. The jury is still out on Pelfrey but he has been pretty good so far in his young career. There are a lot of questions about his psyche which is never a good thing for a pitcher but if he is a number 3 or 4 starter then the Mets have something. Anything higher and he is exposed. The Mets could have had Andrew McCutchen (#11 to the Pirates), Jay Bruce (#12 to the Reds) or Jacoby Ellsbury (#23 to the Red Sox).

2006: Kevin Mulvey, RHP. Packed up with Humber to Minnesota. Mulvey has been awful. OK, so the Mets didn't have a first rounder and nabbed Mulvey in the second round. The fact the MEts got Johan for him and Humber and Carlos Gomez is still a miracle.

2007: Eddie Kunz, RHP. Another second rounder because the Mets had no first round pick. Kunz is now in the Padres organization stinking it up there.

2008: Ike Davis, 1B. OK, so we have someone here who is contributing. Glory be!

2009: Steven Matz, LHP. He is young and has already undergone Tommy John. No telling where he will eventually place in the Mets future.

OK, so now we have run down the drafts of the last decade. The Mets, as we noticed were lucky to dump some of these players in the Johan trade so at least they got something in return, even if that something is a huge untradeable contract. Look back at all the Mets top prospects over the years and ask yourself this one question: Were any of them worth it? Where is Carlos Gomez now? Lastings Milledge? Mike Pelfrey, Ike Davis, and David Wright are the only kids to make an impact from the Mets first pick in the draft. Not bad but there are a ton of head scratchers in there. Omar Minaya was not very adept at finding talent, whether it was because the MEts scouting was poor or they did the dart board approach. The fact that there were no young kids ready to step in and eat some innings or fill a bullpen hole adequately, or to push Luis Castillo out before he signed that contract, or to truly push David Murphy off second this year, speaks volumes about the depth of the Mets farm system. The Mets system ranks near the bottom in every experts rankings, including Baseball America who placed them 20th. This shouldn't be for a team with the suspected resources the Mets have.

Firing Omar Minaya and giving the job to Sandy Alderson was a step in the right direction. Alderson has since surrounded himself with astute baseball people so the Mets will be able to move in the right direction. It will take a few years but Alderson and Co. should get the Mets back to a sustainable farm system and a more complete, well rounded roster. The Mets troubles in recent years aren't an affect of the Wilpon's finances but rather their ignorance of what makes a good baseball man. Omar Minaya was a terrible GM and he proved it year in and year out. He did manage to steal Johan Santana away from the Twins but gave huge contracts to players with questionable histories like Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Jason Bay. Bay cost the Mets a first round pick to boot, further hindering building depth in the minors.

Winning in baseball takes depth at the Big League level and depth in the minors to sustain that Big League depth. The Mets have failed baseball 101 in recent years. And now, the Mets financial situation is going to prevent them from signing Jose Reyes this offseason when he becomes a free agent. Maybe this is a good thing in disguise as Reyes has not been healthy over the last couple of years. However, he is without a doubt their most dynamic player and he makes things happen for the Mets lineup. Perhaps Alderson can trade him for some prospects and get the Mets farm system moving in the right direction again. If he can't, the Mets should get first round compensation for him at the very least. Still, it hurts to lose a player that has been developed by this team and has been with this team for so many years, both good and bad.
No matter which way you slice it, the Mets are probably in for some dark times. They need to shed the contracts of some old, injury plagued players. Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done about owing Bobby Bonilla $30 million, about owing Oliver Perez $12 million, and Luis Castillo even 2 cents. That is going to severely hinder the Mets as they try to rebuild. They will need to put some money into signing draft picks, perhaps developing a strategy like the Yankees by drafting above slot to disperse that money around, thereby signing more kids who can possibly make an impact down the road by enticing them to forgo college. However, the Mets real handicap in the future is going to be financial, unless they shed some contracts don't expect the Mets to be dipping into their pockets for extra cash, because they can't. This lawsuit is going to tie the hands of Sandy Alderson and his baseball braintrust. I really can't see any potential buyer accepting only a 25% share of the Mets if the Wilpons do indeed sell a part of their team as they announced they are willing to do. With ticket sales falling off and this $1 billion lawsuit hanging over the rafters of Citi Field, the Mets financial future is indeed dark. However, with astute drafting and a key trade here and there this team could compete enough to give Mets fans hope until the financial situation is resolved or the Wilpons sell the team. If the Royals can put together a deep farm system that brightens their future, why can't the Mets?

Ultimately, this team is going to have a tough road ahead. If the Wilpons do sell then the clouds start to go away a little bit, depending on whom they sell to. If they don't sell, or retain a controlling interest, then Mets fans will have to wait patiently as Jenrry Mejia develops and Matt Harvey, last years #1 pick progresses. The Wilpons don't make baseball decisions like George Steinbrenner did. They just condoned bad baseball decisions made by Joe McIlvaine, Steve Phillips, Jim Duquette, and Omar Minaya which continue to hurt this team. The Mets, in order to be successful, will have to pump some extra cash into their farm system, from the draft to international free agents instead of giving it to aging free agents or players who don't warrant such a big contract, like Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, or Oliver Perez. Right now, Mets fans have to hope that reclamation projects like R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, Jason Isringhausen, and Chris Capuano continue to produce and provide a stopgap until a new wave of Mets players can arrive via draft and trade. Let Sandy Alderson and Co. do their job and you will soon see some daylight on the stormy horizon.

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