Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Mock Draft

Hell, if the "experts" can do it, so can I. I'll probably do just as well. There are a lot of intriguing quarterback prospects here but, quite frankly I don't think any are worth a first round selection this year. This draft is stocked with defense and I think there might be a run on offensive linemen earlier than expected. Well, these are my gut feeling picks. Got a bone to pick with a pick? Leave a comment.

1. Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. I don't know if Carolina will actually make this pick. There has been a lot of talk about whether or not Newton will grow into a Pro Bowl or franchise quarterback. There is no doubt about his talent but there are questions about his maturity and ability to handle the pressures of the NFL. Personally, I think Carolina would be better off with Marcell Dareus.

2. Denver Broncos. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama. Versatility is the key with Dareus. He can play interior lineman or can be a pass rushing defensive end. The Broncos need a lot of help in a lot of areas. Dareus is probably the safest pick the Broncos can make.

3. Buffalo Bills. Vonn Miller, LB, Texas A&M. Blaine Gabbert is still a possibility here but #3 is just too early for a QB who has not played in a pro-style offense. Miller's stock has gone up and up and fills a huge need for the Bills. Miller will also be able to make an immediate impact on the field, something that Gabbert wouldn't be able to do for at least a year or two.

4. Cincinnati Bengals. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia. Carson Palmer is threatening to retire and has asked for a trade. Green could help convince Palmer to drop his demands as Green is probably the best vacuum in the draft. Even Chad Ochocince has been openly begging the Bengals to make this pick on Twitter, even though it might mean he is gone himself.

5. Arizona Cardinals. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU. Could Arizona take a QB here? Yeah, but this draft doesn't really have that elite quarterback that stand above the rest. Peterson is perhaps the best player in the draft and is ready to make an immediate impact. Arizona could wait until later to grab a QB or try for one in a trade. Perhaps Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb.

6. Cleveland Browns. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama. With Green gone, Jones is the next best option. The Browns need help at wide receiver and Jones should be able to offer a good target for Colt McCoy and will block on running plays for Peyton Hillis.

7. San Francisco 49ers. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn. If Peterson falls to #7 the 49ers will grab him up. If he doesn't and Gabbert is still available, they could grab him but I think the Niners might be a little scared to trust in a non pro-style QB so quickly after Alex Smith busted. Fairley is probably the best interior lineman in the draft and if he is here it might be too much to pass up. You can win championships with an excellent defense and putting him in front of Patrick Willis is a start.

8. Tennessee Titans. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. After Vince Young blew up and with Kerry Collins aging, or is it aged, the Titans will need a lot to compete. What is lacking here is a future quarterback that can learn the offense and grow. Gabbert is that guy, I think. If Fairley is here or if Peterson falls I see them grabbing them up.

9. Dallas Cowboys. Anthony Costanzo, OL, Boston College. The Cowboys need protection for Tony Romo and Costanzo could probably step in right away at either guard or tackle. I rank Costanzo as the best offensive lineman in the draft but Tyron Smith, the offensive tackle from USC could be an option as well.

10. Washington Redskins. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. The Redskins really need offensive help but there isn't anyone left on the offensive side of the ball that represents value at number 10. Bowers has a lot of questions about his knee. But there is no doubting his pass rushing ability. If he were healthy he would be a top 3 pick.

11. Houston Texans. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska. Houston's defense was terrible last year. Amukamara is the best cover corner in the draft. He lacks the ball hawking skills of Peterson but he gets the job done by sticking to his man like glue.

12. Minnesota Vikings. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU. Scouts call him undersized but they said the same thing about Drew Brees. The Vikings have a major need at QB and, unless they trade for one, they will take one with this pick. Dalton will probably need a little time on the bench but should mature into one of the better QB's in the Draft.

13. Detroit Lions. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. The Lions need an outside linebacker and a corner. With Vonn Miller long gone the Lions could go for Akeem Ayers from UCLA but Smith has the potential to be a shutdown corner. There are some off-field character issues but his talent might be too much to pass up.

14. St. Louis Rams. Robert Quinn, LB-DE, North Carolina. Coach Steve Spagnoulo loves versatile guys in his defensive front seven and Quinn is quick enough to rush the passer from the edge or from the end position. He didn't play in 2010 because of eligibility issues. Did suffer from a brain tumor in high school but worked past it and has starred on the field. Good character guy too.

15. Miami Dolphins. Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida. Sure, the Dolphins need a RB and QB but it might be a bit of a reach for Ingram this early. The Dolphins will be needing a center as well with Joe Berger probably gone as a free agent. Pouncey could fill in at either center or guard if the Dolphins move Richie Incognito over to center from guard. They could still grab Ingram at this spot though or Costanzo is he is available.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin. Watt has tremendous upside and should fit into any defensive scheme. He is an absolute value at this pick. If Watt is gone and Bowers manages to slip this far they could grab him or Aldon Smith.

17. New England Patriots. Tyron Smith, OT, USC. The Patriots have needs at linebacker but none really stand out here. They also have needs on the offensive line and Smith should develop into a blindside tackle. If the Cowboys don't take him he will not slip past this spot.

18. San Diego Chargers. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri. Smith came out early and has a lot of raw talent. The Chargers need someone to disrupt the opposing quarterback and Smith could develop into a premium one in the NFL. It might take a little time for him to develop but the upside cancels that out.

19. New York Giants. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama. With Costanzo, Pouncey, and Smith all gone and no other offensive lineman really worth a mid first round pick the Giants might go after Ingram. Ingram has drawn comparisons to Emmitt Smith and the Giants might need a running back with Ahmad Bradshaw a free agent and Brandon Jacobs not the back he once was. Akeem Ayers, the UCLA OLB is another possibility if he is still available and Ingram is off the board.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cameron Jordan, DE, California. The Bucs need help at DE and Jordan has the pass rushing skills the Bucs need. This draft has a lot of options for defensive ends so the Bucs should have plenty to choose from but I think Jordan's biggest strength will be his ability to fit into the Tampa 2 Defense.

21. Kansas City Chiefs. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA. Ayers suffered a bit at the combine but there is no denying what he does on the field. This guy can cover, tackle, and, when needed, attack the QB. The Chiefs defense would get an immediate boost if they pick Ayers here.

22. Indianapolis Colts. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois. The Colts really need help to bolster an aging o-line. They also need help on the d-line and since there is no offensive linemen around of value at this pick I think the Colts will grab Liuget who can plug gaps on the run defense and maybe even get to the quarterback. Liuget is a solid pick but could be taken earlier. If they feel offensive line is an absolute must then they could opt for Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin.

23. Philadelphia Eagles. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. Kerrigan is a pass rusher, period. The Eagles have greater needs but one of them is a pass rusher from the DE position. With Trent Cole and Juqua Parker around, Kerrigan won't need to play everyday and can spell them when needed.

24. New Orleans Saints. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple. Wilkerson can line up inside or outside (mostly in a 3-4). He can anchor a line or get to the QB. He is coming out early and he might need a little time to develop but he has the talent to be good for years. I see Albert Haynesworth in him, only better against the run.

25. Seattle Seahawks. Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin. Yes, Seattle needs a QB to replace Matt Hasselbeck but they also need someone to protect that QB. The Seahawks used over ten different combinations on the o-line last season and health is a concern with that unit as well. Carimi can develop into a solid left tackle in this league and trumps the need under center. If they do go QB, could Jake Locker go here?

26. Baltimore Ravens. Aaron Williams, CB, Texas. The Ravens would love for Jimmy Smith to fall to them at this spot but Williams isn't a bad consolation prize. He has some issues but all of them can be fixed with proper coaching. He is also very good against the run and his two-way style is just what the Ravens defense expects.

27. Atlanta Falcons. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. The Falcons might be a step or two away from a Super Bowl and one of their few needs is a pass rusher. Clayborn can get to a QB off the edge. Scouts say he lacks the burst to get around tackles in the NFL but off the edge he will beat the tackles with his physicality.

28. New England Patriots. Justin Houston, LB, Georgia. Houston is a tweener at this point. He is an outside linebacker but will probably see himself at DE at some point. He seems to be the prototypical Bill Belichick player. He could go much earlier to a team like the Giants trying to fill a need but if he is here he won't be. If the Pats don't go O-line with their first pick they could address that here.

29. Chicago Bears. Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor. If Taylor is still here the Bears won't be able to let him pass. Taylor is a load and a mauler, playing at 350 lbs. The Bears might go o-line but they have no depth on the defensive front. Taylor fits into the Cover 2 because of his sheer physicality. He can play the run and should be able to penetrate to the get to the QB at times.

30. New York Jets. Brooks Reed, DE, Arizona. The Jets need a pass rush. It's the one thing missing from their defense. Vernon Gholston, the last Ohio State defensive end the Jets drafted in the first round is now gone after having become one of the biggest busts in Jets draft history so I don't know if they will go Cameron Heyward here. Reed can be an elite pass rusher in the NFL and, although he lacks ideal size for an every-down DE, he fits Rex Ryan's mold of a speed pass rusher.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado. The Steelers need help at guard and tackle. Solder projects into an excellent run blocking tackle who should be able to adapt to the passing game. He could step in as a starter and this late in the first round Solder becomes a value.

32. Green Bay Packers. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State. The Packers need depth on the D-line and Heyward should be able to step into a rotation right away and make an impact. Heyward doesn't project into an elite pass rusher but plays the run and pass consistently. Heyward reminds me of another good two-way DE, Kenny Holmes. He'll get his sacks but he won't give up anything against the run.

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