1. The Philadelphia Phillies will not win the NL East. I know, it sounds crazy given their sick rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton. However, with Chase Utley being sidelined for an unknown amount of time with knee issues the Phillies offense has taken a huge hit. Yes, they still have Ryan Howard but the guy has more holes in his swing than Rob Deer. Ok, so he isn't that bad but he struck out like 500 times last year and with Utley not hitting in front of him and an elderly Raul Ibanez hitting behind him I am not scared of the Philly lineup. I'm picking the Braves.
The Braves have some good young arms to go with some sturdy vets and a lineup that is young and exciting. Adding Dan Uggla at second was a huge boost for a Braves offense and should give them some pop as Jason Heyward and rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman continue to develop into future all-stars. The Braves could really surprise this year. No they don't have a dynamic rotation but they do have a better all around and younger team than the Phillies and as a season takes its toll the younger guys down in ATL should squeeze out a surprise NL East crown.
2. Curtis Granderson will show Yankees fans why Brian Cashman traded for him prior to last season. Granderson showed flashes late last year after working on his swing with Kevin Long by hitting 14 home runs after coming back from injury. I should expect him to get a few more green llights this year on the base paths this year and wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the 30-30 mark and flirt with 40-40.
3. Adrian Gonzalez will hit 45-50 homers. Green Monster meet Adrian Gonzalez. Need I say more?
4. The Chicago White Sox will take the AL Central crown away from the Twins. The Twins have a lot of question marks and Carl Pavano is their ace, although Francisco Liriano can take that title away any given day, if healthy. Too many Twins are coming back from injury though. Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, and Joe Mauer all got bitten by the injury bug last season. Nathan will take a while to come all the way back from Tommy John surgery and Morneau's concussion symptoms make me wary about this team. There is just too much to overcome for me here. The White Sox on the other hand have some good young arms in Chris Sale and John Danks to go along with solid veterans Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson. Their offense is also very dangerous. This is what happens when you add 40 homer threat Adam Dunn to a lineup that already has Carlos Quentin (coming off a down year but still dangerous), Alex Rios (found new life after escaping Toronto), and Paul Konerko who is still putting up MVP caliber numbers at 35. Throw in a possible return to form from former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and you have all the ingredients for a surprise season. Of course, if Peavy can't stay healthy that puts a huge dent in the White Sox's chances but they should be there in the end.
5. The Mets will lose 95 games. Or more. There is nothing to really like about this team. Too many questions, too many financial restrictions, too many injuries. Jason Bay still suffers from the concussion he suffered last year. Johan Santana is out for at least a couple of months if not longer. Jose Reyes might be the lone bright spot as he is playing for a big contract this offseason. But still, Reyes only played in 133 games last year and 36 games in 2009. Too many things to overcome. Not enough pitching, not enough hitting, too many injuries. However, with the new Mets front office I see a brighter future ahead. It will just be a while before that future gets to Flushing.
6. Mark Prior will make an impact on the Yankees. Once considered the top pitching prospect in the game, Prior was abused early on his career by Dusty Baker who also ruined the career of Kerry Wood. Prior, who hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2006, will start the year at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. However, Prior could get a call up to the Bronx to step into a bullpen spot once he proves he is healthy. Expect him to stay healthy and get his career back on track.
7. The San Francisco Giants will not repeat as champs. In fact, they will miss the playoffs altogether this year. Miguel Tejada is their shortstop. Tejada was known for his bat, and now that is starting to show signs of his age. Too many innings last season for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain will start to tell as fatigue finally catches up to them. Even if they do stay healthy and show no signs of throwing all the innings last year, the Giants offense just doesn't wow me. Aubrey Huff was their leading hitter last season and now he is just blocking Brandon Belt from assuming first base. The Giants have one of the brightest futures in the game but the World Series hangover will tell. Instead, the Rockies will be the surprise this year in the NL West. Ubaldo Jimenez, Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki will lead the Rockies to the playoffs once again.
8. Austin Jackson will hit .300 and strike out 180 times. The guy swings at pitches from pitchers warming up in the bullpen, he just has no concept of the strike zone.
9. Jesus Montero will be the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal that nets the Yankees an ace starting pitcher. Ryan Dempster could be available, so could Josh Johnson.
10. The Red Sox will defeat the Reds in the World Series. The Yankees will lose in the ALCS, and the Mets will have a fire sale at the trade deadline.
11. Derek Jeter will hit .309 and Ichiro will fail to reach 200 hits for the first time in his career, falling one hit short.
So there you have it, my wild predictions for the 2011 season. Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment.
