1. Jesus Montero, C. He was number one on my previous list and remains there. His season has been somewhat of a disappointment but he is still hitting .289 with 7 homers and 33 RBI's. Scouts have said he looks bored in Scranton and that could very well be the case. He proved last year he can handle AAA and this year is no different. Right now he is dealing with smoe back/side stiffness and is on the 7-Day DL but its nothing major. His defense isn't great but its improved a little this season. He would be a borderline backstop defensively in the Majors but that isn't what makes Montero special. He has good power and can hit for average. I am actually very surprised the Yankees have not made him the backup to Russell Martin yet like they did with Jorge Posada in the mid to late 1990's. He can use the challenge and a little love from the Yankees might go a long way. And, if the Yankees want to use him as a trade chip, having him show he can handle the Big Leagues would be a huge advantage.
2. Manny Banuelos, SP. He had a fabulous Spring Training this year but has regressed a little at AA but he retains the #2 spot on my list. His numbers aren't hideous or anything. In fact, his numbers still look quite good. In 16 games this season, Banuelos has compiled a 3-2 record, 3.28 ERA, and has struck out 77 in 74 innings. His one bugaboo so far has been his walks. He has allowed 39 walks this season after only allowing 25 in 64.2 innings all of last year. It isn't anything to get worried about. The stuff is still there. He has the makings of a future ace and the Yankees know it.
3. Dellin Betances, SP. Betances jumps from #4 to #3 and deservedly so. He could overtake Banuelos for the #2 spot at any time. His 2011 season at AA Trenton has been something of a display. He often gets into trouble by walking too many hitters but then proceeds to get out of those jams by striking guys out. So far this season he has a 4-3 record with a 2.62 ERA, and 86 strikeouts in 75.2 innings. He has allowed 40 walks, however, after allowing 22 in 85.1 all of last season. He has shown he can tame the wildness before and I am confident he will be able to do it in the future. What he projects to is either Mariano's heir or a staff ace. It might not be long before Betances is #1 on this list.
4. Gary Sanchez, C. He drops from #3 after a poor showing this year at Low-A Charleston. He was sent to Extended Spring Training after some attitude problems but has since returned and has shown some improvement. He is only hitting .239 at the moment but has 8 homers, which match last year's totals, and 30 RBI's. He is still very young, only 19, so I am sure he will outgrow his attitude problems. His defense has been awful this year, allowing a whopping 23 passed balls. He needs to focus more behind the plate and devote himself to the game. If he does that he could have a higher ceiling than Montero at least offensively. Sometimes kids just need a kick in the ass and Sanchez needs that right now.
5. Bryan Mitchell, SP. Mitchell was drafted by the Yankees in the 2009 Draft. They stole him away from the University of North Carolina with a huge bonus. He throws his fastball in the low 90's with a good slider and an outstanding, knee-buckling 12-6 curveball. It might seem like an awfully big jump for a 20 year-old kid with less than a full season of pro ball under his belt but this kid can pitch. He needs to cut down on his walks which are a result of him wanting to strike everyone out and be perfect all the time. If he learns to pitch to contact sometimes the Yankees could have another ace in their pocket who also has a "B" in his name. He should also be able to add some zip to his fastball as he packs on some weight to his 6'2" 175 lbs. frame. He makes it to number 5 based purely on talent and not statistics.
6. Mason Williams, CF. Williams is another of those toolsy guys and another first-timer on my list. Power was never considered to be a tool Williams possessed but that tool could develop over time. He has speed, an arm, hits for average, and understands the game. He is a pretty darn good outfielder, showing very good instincts and cat-like reflexes in the outfield. He might be a little too aggressive on the bases but he should learn when and where to steal a bag. In many ways he reminds me of a young Bernie Williams with a much better arm. He showed up to Staten Island ready to play this year, raking to the tune of a .325 AVG with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 12 RBI's, and 5 stolen bases (out of 9 attempts). The Yankees might have an upgraded version of Brett Gardner in Williams or the next Bernie Williams. Either way I think the Yankees would be happy. He just needs to cut down on the strikeouts.
7. J.R. Murphy, C/3B. Murphy has often been overlooked because the Yankees have like 400 catching prospects that rank. However, Murphy might just be the one who sneaks in and ends up squatting behind the plate for the Yankees. At Charleston he was hitting to the tune of .297 with 6 homers and 32 RBI before earning a promotion to High-A Tampa. He has struggled a little bit since his promotion but you can't base anything on the 41 at-bats he has at that level. He improved his defense significantly, enough so that the Yankees stopped playing him elsewhere on the field and started putting him behind the plate a little more often. He also has a great eye and is pretty hard to strikeout, at least for someone his age (20) and playing at his level. He is versatile enough so that if he doesn't make it as a catcher he can always play the outfield or DH or play some first or third.
8. Slade Heathcott, OF. He is currently on the DL but has earned himself a promotion to High-A Tampa. He still has some makeup issues after starting a brawl by getting hit by a pitch and then turning around and laying out the catcher. He served a 5 game suspension for that act but, considering his background, he has come a long way. He has one of the best outfield arms in all of minor league baseball and his bat looks like it is coming around. He hit .271 with 11 doubles, 4 triples, and 4 homers while amassing 16 RBI's and 6 stolen bases. He has the speed to become more aggressive on the basepaths but like Mason Williams he needs to learn when and where to steal. He should end up developing some decent power, probably in the 15-25 range at the big league level.
9. Andrew Brackman, SP/RP. Brackman entered the season at #5 on my list and closest to making the Majors out of the "Killer B's" but an extremely poor showing at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has eroded some of the shine off his prospect status. Last year, Brackman made major strides, going 10-11 with a 3.90 ERA while striking out 126 and walking only 39 in 140.2 innings. This year, however, Brackman has lost control. He leads the league in walks (51), hit batters (10), wild pitches (14) and has an ugly 7.96 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. He was removed from the SWB rotation and placed in the bullpen but that hasn't helped. The stuff is there but something is missing. His fastball velocity has been up and down, reaching as high as 94-95 and as low as 87 for a game. At 25 years old and having signed a Major League contract after being drafted time is running out on Brackman who could become a free agent after this season or next season, I'm not sure which.
10. Mark Montgomery, RP. So far this year he has pitched in a total of 7 games but that was enough to earn him a promotion from Staten Island to Charleston. On July 1st of this year he struck out 5 batters in one inning. His slider is devastating and it shows in the strikeout totals, 19 in 7 innings. Think about that for a second. Nineteen outs out of 21 were by strikeout. Granted, he did have that 5 in one inning appearance but even if you take those two extra away that is still 17 out of 21 outs made being achieved by a strikeout. He is a reliever to the core so the Yankees don't really have to worry much about innings limits or any of that nonsense that can impede the arrival of pitching prospects in the Big Leagues. The Yankees have proven they will advance him as he earns it, having already done so after only 4 innings at Staten Island. If he keeps it up he could be in the Bronx in a year.
11. Austin Romine, C. Considered to be the better all-around catcher among the Yankees catching prospects, Romine has also swung a hot bat at Trenton this year. He has 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 35 RBI to accompany his .294 AVG. Right now the lack of a roster spot and regular playing time behind the plate at AAA Scranton is the only thing keeping him from being promoted. Once Montero gets promoted or traded then Romine will move up. He was #10 on my last list but the emergence of others rather than Romine's poor play caused a slight drop. One could argue that Romine is better than Murphy but I am taking into account overall prospect status which means Murphy might have a higher ceiling than Romine but Romine will surely be a catcher in the Majors.
12. Adam Warren, SP. He was #8 on my previous list but, like Romine, he slipped due to the emergence of others rather than his lack of production. Warren has done very well for himself at AAA so far, amassing a 6-3 record, 3.20 ERA, and 67 K's over 104 innings. He doesn't strike many hitters out and has a tendency to walk too many but he has a poise that you can't teach and escapes the jams he gets into with minimal damage. He probably won't develop into an ace but he could easily fit into the back end of the rotation and perform similarly to Ivan Nova this season.
13. David Phelps, SP. Like Warren he won't strike many hitters out and pitches to contact. He has gone 4-6 with a 3.38 ERA with 74 K's in 85.1 innings. He won't be an ace but could, like Warren, be a back of the rotation type guy.
14. Tommy Kahnle, RP. Kahnle is, like Montgomery, a strikeout machine. He also has developed a wild streak as he tries to strike every hitter he faces out. He has 64 K's through 50 innings with Charleston this year and could find himself on his way to Tampa soon. He just needs to eliminate some of those free passes, he has walked 30 in those 50 innings. He has held opposing hitters to a .196 AVG and only 1 homer this season but has a 3.96 ERA. The talent is there, he just needs to harness it and use it effectively.
15. Graham Stoneburner, SP. Injuries have really set him back in his development. He is undersized at 6'1" and 190 lbs. but he can bring the heat at 94 MPH. He was pitching well for Trenton this year before an injury sidelined him. He is now making rehab starts with the GCL Yankees. He has a good delivery which explains why he has been able to have the success he has enjoyed. He really needs to develop a second pitch, and maybe a third. If he can get an off-speed breaking ball to be as consistent as his fastball then the sky is the limit for Stoneburner. If not, it looks like a relief role in the majors is where he will end up. I have faith in him and think he could be a viable #3 guy in the Yankees rotation in one to two years. He just needs to stay healthy, get his arm stretched out, and develop another pitch or two.
Honorable Mentions: David Adams, 2B (needs to stay healthy otherwise he makes this list); Brandon Laird, 3B (has struggled at AAA this year); Cito Culver, SS (surprising a lot of people with his bat and arm at SS); Caleb Cotham, P (will make this list once he gets healthy and puts a few innings under his belt); Tim Norton (was on pace to make his MLB debut this year until a career threatening injury derailed those plans. If he can recover from it he can be an excellent middle reliever); Shaeffer Hall, SP (another pitcher in the mold of Warren and Phelps); Ben Gamel, 1B (younger brother to Mat Gamel of the Brewers, can flat out rake).
The Yankees farm system is one of the best in baseball. There are a lot of intriguing prospects scattered throughout the many levels and some of them will develop into legitimate superstars. However, there will also be plenty of flameouts. Right now, the Yankees system has a few power arms but their pitching prospects closest to the Majors are more finesse, pitch to contact types who can either do well or get bombed in the Majors. On the offensive side there are a lot of high strikeout guys but there are some with real potential. Lately the Yankees have been drafting more toolsy type players instead of power hitters. This year, however, they drafted Dante Bichette, Jr. who is a power type prospect. At every single level there are guys to watch and by the end of the season I'm sure my list will have to be changed once again as guys like Zoilo Almonte play their way into contention. Nothing is harder than trying to project baseball players. Ruben Rivera was the next Mickey Mantle and Brien Taylor was the next Nolan Ryan. And nobody knew where Chien Ming Wang came from and few predicted Robinson Cano would develop as he has. That's what makes this so much fun. Nothing is better than watching a kid get drafted and come up through the Minors and then emerge on the Big League scene. All you need is patience.
1 comment:
Correction: Gary Sanchez is still only 18.
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