Rumors have started swirling recently about a possible trade involving the Yankees and Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez. It is rumored Colorado sees Yankees top prospect Jesus Montero as a possible solution at first base and a deal could center around him and either Dellin Betances or Manny Banuelos, the Yankees top two pitching prospects plus some others. Given the Yankees recent history with National League pitchers I have to wonder if this deal makes sense for the Yankees.
So far this season, Ubaldo has struggled. Sure, he is pitching better now after an 0-5 start but the question must be asked, why did the guy who finished third in the NL Cy Young voting last year get off to such a rough start? Was he jealous of the deals Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki were given by Colorado? Was his arm not 100% after throwing all of those innings last year? His velocity has been down this year which could explain why he has been as hittable this season. His swing and miss rate is down to 7.5% after having never been below 8.9% between 2007 and 2010. Still, he does get a lot of strikeouts and groundballs, offsetting those numbers a little. However, his track record in the playoffs isn't very ace-like and his interleague numbers are very blah to say the least. His numbers against the American League are very similar to what A.J. Burnett is posting now. He owns a 6-4 record, 4.08 ERA, 7.3 K/9 ratio (down from his normal 8.1 career rate) in 79.1 innings against teams on the Junior Circuit.
The comparables to A.J. Burnett are pretty uncanny this season. Jimenez has thrown a couple of good starts only to look terrible on his next couple. This year Burnett's line is: 8-7, 4.15 ERA, 97 hits allowed in 119.1 innings, 52 walks, 100 K's (7.5 K/9) and a 1.24 WHIP. Jimenez sports a 5-8 record, 4.08 ERA, 101 hits allowed in 110.1 innings, 43 walks, 99 K's (8.1 K/9) and a 1.30 WHIP. Eerily similar. Burnett is a little wilder and gives up the long ball (17 this year compared to Jimenez's 8) a little more often but the numbers are very close to each other. Do the Yankees really want to give up a boatload of prospects for a guy who might just be another A.J. Burnett?
OK, so A.J. never had a season like Jimenez did last year. Jimenez was a true ace last season. However, this season he has been anything but. In a league where offense is no longer king, one has to wonder what is behind Jimenez's recent downturn. Is it arm related? He did have major shoulder surgery in 2004 while in the minors. Sure, it was in 2004 but shoulder problems can linger and become an issue again, especially is the pitcher puts a lot of strain on his shoulder, or even elbow. Jimenez throws a bunch of pitches that put strain on those joints. Aside from his 2 and 4 seam fastballs he throws a slider and splitter which can strain even the strongest elbows. I'm not saying he is injured but his long term health must be questioned if you are going to give up the farm.
Now for the big question, can Jimenez handle the American League? We have seen many good pitchers come over from the National League to the Yankees only to become shells of their former selves. Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright (he saw his big success come in the NL hence the 3 year, $21 million deal the Yankees gave him), Kyle Farnsworth, Javier Vazquez, Chris Hammond, Paul Quantrill, and even Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown come to mind although they were good or great in the AL before moving on to an extended NL stay. I'm not saying Jimenez would follow in their footsteps but it is worth noting.
All of this is just speculation, much like the speculation that Colorado would trade their ace pitcher who is under a team friendly contract until 2014. I don't see why they would even dangle their best pitcher, regardless of how tough a year he is having. Colorado is 8 games out of first place in the NL West and they have been known to make a crazy second half comeback. I just don't see why, unless they are completely blown away by an offer, they would part with their best pitcher who is still just 27 years-old. If an unbelievable offer came their way then I would understand but why would a team like the Yankees offer up a whole slew of their best prospects for a guy who is pulling an A.J. Burnett impersonation this season? The Yankees would be much better served to bring Jesus Montero up to the big leagues to replace Francisco Cervelli who has been downright dreadful on both sides of the game, allow Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances (both of whom have made every guru's top 50 prospects list) to develop and eventually take their places in the rotation or bullpen in the next couple of years. All three of those kids are among the top prospects in the game, and would all be cheaper and under team control for a long time. If they develop as projected, or if even one does, it still gives the Yankees more payroll flexibility and still gives them a helluva player at that position, whether it is DH, pitcher, or catcher. There are very few pitchers in this game right now that I would trade 2 of those kids for and three of them are on the Phillies roster (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels), two are on the Red Sox roster (Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz), one is already a Yankee (C.C.) and one is in Seattle (Felix Hernandez).
Bottom line, while Jimenez is intriguing because he might be the best available (or semi-available) starter on the market this year. However, I wouldn't give up the farm to get him. Nor would I trade him if I were the Rockies unless he was a real clubhouse cancer and just stopped pitching because he felt bad he wasn't given a new contract. I don't see this trade matching up.
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