The Yankees season is officially over. It still hurts a little to say that but that's what happens when you load the bases twice in a game with one out and fail to score one run. Now, it is time to look forward to next year, if we can do that already. The free agency picture isn't completely clear right now because there are a lot of guys with options and a few with opt out clauses. However, we know the Yankees will have to be busy this winter because some of those options and opt-outs are currently on the roster.
Right now, the Yankees hold options on Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher. Cano is a no-brainer but I'm not so sure about Swisher. Sure, Swisher hits well enough in the regular season but his post-season numbers are atrocious. He has hit .169 in 5 ALDS series, 3 ALCS, and 1 World Series. .169! This past ALDS he hit .211 for the Yankees with 1 homer and 1 RBI. He doesn't do anything particularly well, hitting between 20-30 homers but has hit over 30 (35) only once and that was in 2006. He isn't worth the $10 million that the Yankees will have to pay him if they pick up his option. Sorry, Swisher, but your days of saluting in right field at Yankee Stadium are over.
C.C. Sabathia can opt out of his contract and elect for free agency. I see him opting out but I don't know if the Yankees will let him walk away. Yes, his conditioning is a major issue. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher add weight during the season since David Wells and it looks like Sabathia ate all of Wells' portions on top of his own. Sabathia made three appearances in this ALDS and gave up at least one run in every single appearance. Not good. Sabathia needs to learn about how to get fit. Imagine what he could do if he stayed in shape?
Jorge Posada's Yankee career is over. There is no reason to get nostalgic over a 40-year old DH who had a great ALDS this year. It seemed as if Posada was always starting or always in the middle of a rally. He will be missed, as all Yankee legends are, but it is time for the Yankees to bring Jesus Montero up and give him a shot. Montero is younger and is probably a much bigger offensive threat at this point. The time has come to let the next generation of Yankee stars show what they can do.
As for the Yankee rotation, well let's just say there is no sure thing in this rotation at all. Sabathia can opt out. Burnett is a disaster, ALDS start included. Nova had a great year but he hasn't shown he can do this year and year out. Phil Hughes was a complete mystery this year. Bartolo Colon is probably done, his fighting with C.C. over post-game spreads won't be tolerated and the Yankees really don't want to bring back a 40-year old pitcher with health issues. They were lucky this season and shouldn't roll the dice on him again. Freddy Garcia pitched very well and was probably the Yankees most consistent starter all year long. The Yankees wouldn't be going out on a limb to give him a one or two-year deal and see what he can do.
I would expect the Yankees to target at least one starting pitcher this offseason even if Sabathia opts out and re-signs. C.J. Wilson, a lefty who has done nothing but win the last two years is probably going to get the phone call from GM Brian Cashman, who the Yankees also need to re-sign. After Wilson the talent level drops off, depending on options and opt-outs. Mark Buehrle of the White Sox has hinted at retirement but is still 33 years-old and has the ability to shut down opponents. He might get a courtesy call this winter from the Yankees as well.
Right now, none of the Yankees top pitching prospects are ready for the Majors. Adam Warren and David Phelps might be the closest but they are middle of the road prospects, not like Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances who projects as top two starters. Maybe the Yankees see what Warren can do, Nova, after all wasn't a top prospect either but he learned how to pitch. Either way I expect the Yankees to give one of Warren and Phelps a shot and for them to sign at least one other starter (Wilson) to go with Sabathia and Burnett and Nova. Phil Hughes will remain a question mark for the time being because of whatever arm issues he was dealing with. He pitched very well out of the pen and the Yankees could use him there. Having a bullpen that has Joba Chamberlain, Rafael Soriano, Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, David Robertson, Luis Ayala, Cory Wade, and Mariano Rivera in the mix is something to hang your hat on. Whomever doesn't make the team in Spring Training out of the Hughes, Wade, Ayala group could be used in a trade.
As for the offense, well there are a lot of question marks here even with Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez being penciled in. A-Rod was not the same player he was before all of the injuries sapped him of his ability to hit. The Yankees might consider using him at DH more next year to keep him fresh. Eduardo Nunez was terrible in the field but was pretty good offensively and on the base paths. He could continue to spell A-Rod at third while he DH's. Another option might be to have A-Rod see what right field is like. Certainly he has the speed to cover ground out there and the wear and tear is nothing like it is at third. If A-Rod wants to show he is all about the team he should volunteer to take some fly balls out there. You never know, he could save his career out there. Jesus Montero showed what he was capable of and the Yankees will have to find a way to get his young, explosive bat into the lineup. He could be the backup catcher when he isn't DHing and should show the world why it was smart for the Yankees not to trade him. He is certainly better than Francisco Cervelli on both ends of the plate and it only makes sense for the Yankees to do this. If A-Rod DH's more than Montero can spell Martin behind the plate more often. The fact is the Yankees need to get his bat into this lineup. As for Swisher, he should not be brought back, as mentioned before. The Yankees would save themselves a lot of money and heartache in the postseason. Replacements for him aren't clear yet. I think the Yankees might kick the tires on Grady Sizemore or Jason Kubel. Sizemore has an injury history longer than Carl Pavano's, ok maybe not that bad, but this once promising player has seen his career go awry because he can't stay healthy. He is still only 29 or so and can be an upgrade over Swisher in right field if healthy. If the Yankees were willing to gamble on Colon, why not Sizemore who is younger? As for a utility guy I am a fan of bringing in Mark DeRosa who is a free agent. He can play anywhere on the field and has a .358 career postseason average. He is up there in age (37 next year) but can still hit, he hit .279 this season for San Francisco in a limited role and has shown his bat has some pop. He is also a Yankee fan who attended Bergen Catholic and he might be so excited to be a Yankee he surprises people. at worst you get a guy who plays solid defense everywhere he plays and will slap singles all over the field. He won't be expensive at all and has dreamed of being a Yankee since he was young. The Yankees need a guy like this who understands his role, has won a World Series and has performed in the postseason on a consistently great level.
The Yankees are in for a busy off-season. The first step is getting a GM in place, whether it is Cashman or a replacement. Then, bring in a starting pitcher, re-sign C.C., exercise option on Cano, hope Soriano opts out of his contract, stay away from ANY relievers in free agency, and find a new right fielder. It should be interesting to say the least.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Looking Back...Swami I am Not
OK, the baseball season is now officially over, and what a finish it was. Who would have thought that the Red Sox would lose after taking a 3-2 lead into the ninth with two outs and two strikes on Nolan Reimold? Who would have figured the Rays would come back from being down 7-0 to the Yankees and win in the 12th inning on an Evan Longoria home run? Who would have figured the Braves would lose out on the playoffs in a similar fashion to the Red Sox and the Cardinals would come back from the dead to sneak in as a Wild Card? Well, let's see if any of my predictions came true:
1. The Braves will win the NL East: Ummm, no they didn't. 0 for 1
2. Curtis Granderson will flirt with 40-40 and have a breakout year: Hell yeah he did! He hit 41 homers but stole only 25 bases and got caught stealing 10 times. Well, he did something he never did before, he hit 40+ homers, that's gotta count for something, right?1 for 2!
3. Adrian Gonzalez will hit 45-50 homers: Nope, he didn't. 1 for 3.
4. The White Sox will beat out the Twins in the Central: Guess I forgot about the Tigers and all. 1 for 4.
5. The Mets will lose 95 games: Nope, they lost 85. 1 for 5.
6. Mark Prior will make an impact on the Yankees. Wow, I must have been drinking. 1 for 6.
7. The Giants will miss the playoffs. Yes, they did. Woohooo 2 for 7.
8. Austin Jackson will hit .300 and strike out 180 times. Well, he hit .249 and struck out 181 times. 2.5 for 8.
9. Jesus Montero will be traded. No he wasn't and thankfully I'm wrong. 2.5 for 9
10. The Red Sox will beat the Reds in World Series. Neither team made the playoffs. Oops. 2.5 for 10.
11. Derek Jeter will bat .309 and Ichiro will fail to reach 200 hits for first time. Jeter hit .297 and Ichiro only had 184 hits. Another half point, 3 for 11.
1. The Braves will win the NL East: Ummm, no they didn't. 0 for 1
2. Curtis Granderson will flirt with 40-40 and have a breakout year: Hell yeah he did! He hit 41 homers but stole only 25 bases and got caught stealing 10 times. Well, he did something he never did before, he hit 40+ homers, that's gotta count for something, right?1 for 2!
3. Adrian Gonzalez will hit 45-50 homers: Nope, he didn't. 1 for 3.
4. The White Sox will beat out the Twins in the Central: Guess I forgot about the Tigers and all. 1 for 4.
5. The Mets will lose 95 games: Nope, they lost 85. 1 for 5.
6. Mark Prior will make an impact on the Yankees. Wow, I must have been drinking. 1 for 6.
7. The Giants will miss the playoffs. Yes, they did. Woohooo 2 for 7.
8. Austin Jackson will hit .300 and strike out 180 times. Well, he hit .249 and struck out 181 times. 2.5 for 8.
9. Jesus Montero will be traded. No he wasn't and thankfully I'm wrong. 2.5 for 9
10. The Red Sox will beat the Reds in World Series. Neither team made the playoffs. Oops. 2.5 for 10.
11. Derek Jeter will bat .309 and Ichiro will fail to reach 200 hits for first time. Jeter hit .297 and Ichiro only had 184 hits. Another half point, 3 for 11.
Monday, September 12, 2011
2 Minute Drill
-The NFL Season is now truly under way and one thing is evident: Players are paying the price of the lockout. Injuries to key players through the preseason and the first week are really adding up. Chiefs safety Eric Berry joins Carolina LB Jon Beason, Giants LB Jon Goff, CB Terrell Thomas, and a slew of others on injured reserve, their season already over. Conditioning was a major concern among coaching staffs around the NFL and their fears are being realized. This is a violent game and injuries happen but teams will suffer because of the shortened camp and complete lack of mini-camps over the summer.
-The Giants will be terrible this year. Sure, they have the talent to turn it around but the amount of injuries to key personnel have really added up and seems to have devastated this team. It showed in Week 1 against the Redkins. The Giants receivers were not holding onto the football, Eli Manning was still making mistakes, Ahmad Bradshaw is not the answer in short-yardage situations, and the Giants secondary looked lost at times. Throw on top of that, the Giants offensive line is still adjusting to new roles and new faces and it has the makings of a loooong season. I did pick the Giants to make the playoffs and they still could. However, right now, they have a lot of work that needs to get done and it doesn't look like its gonna happen this year.
-The Jets-Cowboys game was a wild one. The Jets didn't do anything great until the second half when the blocked punt was returned for a TD and Darrelle Revis intercepted Tony Romo at a key time. The Jets defense stepped up when it needed to to, forcing turnovers and never giving up despite being down 14 points in the 4th quarter. This is a great win for the Jets and horrible loss for the Cowboys. Tony Romo is less trustworthy in key spots than Eli Manning in any spot. If Romo throws for only 9 interceptions in a season the chances are that all 9 will be significant because they will come at crucial points. The Cowboys are a QB away from being a damned good football team.
-As bad as the Giants looked yesterday there is a lot of talent on that football team. What is even scarier is how good they can be if they are healthy. Think about a secondary with Terrell Thomas, Corey Webster, Prince Amukamara, Aaron Ross, Antrell Rolle, Kenny Phillips, and Deon Grant backing up a defensive line of Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyioura, Marvin Austin, Chris Canty, and Linval Joseph. Think about how good the Giants will be if Mark Herzlich becomes the player many thought he could become before cancer. Think about Greg Jones getting invaluable on-the-job training at middle linebacker and how much potential he has. Mathias Kiwanuka is a pass-rushing nightmare on QB's and O-linemen. This defense can be great. It just needs to be healthy and happy. Next year the Giants will be a playoff team, regardless of who coaches them, and will be back in a Super Bowl within three years. This was a freak offseason for the Giants and if it is Tom Coughlin's last year, the Giants will find a suitable coach who will be able to get the best out of this team. Take it to the bank.
-Cam Newton sure shut his critics up with one of the best week 1 performances I have ever seen out of a rookie QB. I certainly didn't think he was capable. Good job, Cam. Who knows, maybe you are that good.
-Do you think the Colts miss Peyton Manning yet? Do you think Kerry Collins wishes he stayed retired or is just thankful his name is not Donovan McNabb?
-Speaking of McNabb, I don't think he is THAT bad. I still don't think he has much left to offer but he could still be a playoff caliber QB for the Vikings.
-So Tedd Ginn, Jr. still plays football. Great game for him against the Seahawks. He always had the ability but he never allowed to translate. Fantasy owners everywhere are rushing to pick him up.
-George W. Bush performed the coin toss at the Jets-Cowboys game. In a predominantly democratic area the formerly unpopular Bush got a smattered of boos but they were hushed out by thunderous appaluse and chants of "U-S-A!"
-When did Ryan Fitzpatrick learn how to play QB? The Bills QB tossed 4 TD's against the Chiefs on Sunday as Buffalo romped and stomped Kansas City 41-7.
-Enjoy the double-header tonight on Monday Night Football. If the weekend has taught us anything it is to expect anything at anytime. What a crazy beginning to the football season.
-The Giants will be terrible this year. Sure, they have the talent to turn it around but the amount of injuries to key personnel have really added up and seems to have devastated this team. It showed in Week 1 against the Redkins. The Giants receivers were not holding onto the football, Eli Manning was still making mistakes, Ahmad Bradshaw is not the answer in short-yardage situations, and the Giants secondary looked lost at times. Throw on top of that, the Giants offensive line is still adjusting to new roles and new faces and it has the makings of a loooong season. I did pick the Giants to make the playoffs and they still could. However, right now, they have a lot of work that needs to get done and it doesn't look like its gonna happen this year.
-The Jets-Cowboys game was a wild one. The Jets didn't do anything great until the second half when the blocked punt was returned for a TD and Darrelle Revis intercepted Tony Romo at a key time. The Jets defense stepped up when it needed to to, forcing turnovers and never giving up despite being down 14 points in the 4th quarter. This is a great win for the Jets and horrible loss for the Cowboys. Tony Romo is less trustworthy in key spots than Eli Manning in any spot. If Romo throws for only 9 interceptions in a season the chances are that all 9 will be significant because they will come at crucial points. The Cowboys are a QB away from being a damned good football team.
-As bad as the Giants looked yesterday there is a lot of talent on that football team. What is even scarier is how good they can be if they are healthy. Think about a secondary with Terrell Thomas, Corey Webster, Prince Amukamara, Aaron Ross, Antrell Rolle, Kenny Phillips, and Deon Grant backing up a defensive line of Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyioura, Marvin Austin, Chris Canty, and Linval Joseph. Think about how good the Giants will be if Mark Herzlich becomes the player many thought he could become before cancer. Think about Greg Jones getting invaluable on-the-job training at middle linebacker and how much potential he has. Mathias Kiwanuka is a pass-rushing nightmare on QB's and O-linemen. This defense can be great. It just needs to be healthy and happy. Next year the Giants will be a playoff team, regardless of who coaches them, and will be back in a Super Bowl within three years. This was a freak offseason for the Giants and if it is Tom Coughlin's last year, the Giants will find a suitable coach who will be able to get the best out of this team. Take it to the bank.
-Cam Newton sure shut his critics up with one of the best week 1 performances I have ever seen out of a rookie QB. I certainly didn't think he was capable. Good job, Cam. Who knows, maybe you are that good.
-Do you think the Colts miss Peyton Manning yet? Do you think Kerry Collins wishes he stayed retired or is just thankful his name is not Donovan McNabb?
-Speaking of McNabb, I don't think he is THAT bad. I still don't think he has much left to offer but he could still be a playoff caliber QB for the Vikings.
-So Tedd Ginn, Jr. still plays football. Great game for him against the Seahawks. He always had the ability but he never allowed to translate. Fantasy owners everywhere are rushing to pick him up.
-George W. Bush performed the coin toss at the Jets-Cowboys game. In a predominantly democratic area the formerly unpopular Bush got a smattered of boos but they were hushed out by thunderous appaluse and chants of "U-S-A!"
-When did Ryan Fitzpatrick learn how to play QB? The Bills QB tossed 4 TD's against the Chiefs on Sunday as Buffalo romped and stomped Kansas City 41-7.
-Enjoy the double-header tonight on Monday Night Football. If the weekend has taught us anything it is to expect anything at anytime. What a crazy beginning to the football season.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Eli(te)?
Recently Eli Manning came under fire from various circles because he considered himself an elite quarterback. Many of those taking fire at Eli were Giants fans. In fact, during the Giants preseason home opener against the Bears on August 22nd, there was a sign scrawled on a bedsheet that read "Eli-te? Show us!" As many of you know I am a Giants fan and I just don't understand the hatred some Giants fans show towards Eli. So, as any history major would do I did some research.
Many Giants fans consider Phil Simms to be the greatest Giants QB in the modern era. Also in this category are Y.A. Tittle, Fran Tarkenton, Charlie Conerly and even Kerry Collins. Eli Manning has a better career (during their time with the Giants) completion percentage than any of those except Kerry Collins who beats Manning by .5%. Manning has a higher completion percentage with the Giants than Hall of Famers Tittle, Tarkenton, and Conerly. Manning ranks second all-time in passing yardage with 22,646. Phil Simms leads all Giants QB's with an all-time mark of 33,462. The major difference is Simms, who was my favorite Giant growing up, had from 1979 to 1993 to amass that yardage. Eli has amassed his numbers since 2004 when he took over the reigns from Kurt Warner. Manning ranks third all-time in touchdowns behind Simms (199) and Conerly (173) with 156. Simms needed 14 years and Conerly 13 years to amass those numbers. Eli is on pace to break Simms' record in about 2 years. So by the end of 2012, Eli's 8th year in the league, he will have set the all-time mark for touchdowns by a Giants QB.
Eli's detractors will point out that he throws too many interceptions. Yes, Eli has thrown 113 INT's and is thrid all-time in that category as a Giant. However, Eli has the same interception rate as Phil Simms, 3.4%. That puts him ahead of Norm Snead, Charlie Conerly, Y.A. Tittle, and Fran Tarkenton to name a few. What makes that even more remarkable is Eli is second all-time in completions for a Giants QB and should surpass Simms in another 2 years. He is also second in career attempts so Eli has thrown a helluva lot more balls than some Hall of Famers and still has a lower interception percentage.
Eli's detractors will point out Eli doesn't win football games. Well, Eli owns a 60-43 mark as a QB. Only Phil Simms has more wins (95-64) than Eli. However, Eli bests Phil in career QB rating, 80.2 to 78.5. Quarterback rating is the only place Eli doesn't shine when compared with his Giants contemporaries.
Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback? Well, maybe he is. He is certainly the best quarterback the Giants have ever had and is on pace to set every single record for Giants QB's. There have only been four seasons in which a Giants quarterback has thrown for over 4,000 yards. Eli is the only one to do it twice. Eli is also only the second Giants QB to ever throw for 30 TD's in a season. Y.A. Tittle did it twice. Of the top ten all-time single season touchdown leaders, Eli makes the list five times. Tarkenton and Tittle make the list twice and Simms just once. Oh, and his 62.9 completion percentage from last season ranks tops all-time for a Giants QB.
Say what you want about Eli Manning. The facts are he is arguably the best quarterback the Giants have ever had. A case can be made for Tittle but he only played a few years for the Giants. Sure, a case can be made for Simms but the numbers show Manning is better. Is he elite? Well, Giants fans shouldn't be complaining about Eli to say the least.
Many Giants fans consider Phil Simms to be the greatest Giants QB in the modern era. Also in this category are Y.A. Tittle, Fran Tarkenton, Charlie Conerly and even Kerry Collins. Eli Manning has a better career (during their time with the Giants) completion percentage than any of those except Kerry Collins who beats Manning by .5%. Manning has a higher completion percentage with the Giants than Hall of Famers Tittle, Tarkenton, and Conerly. Manning ranks second all-time in passing yardage with 22,646. Phil Simms leads all Giants QB's with an all-time mark of 33,462. The major difference is Simms, who was my favorite Giant growing up, had from 1979 to 1993 to amass that yardage. Eli has amassed his numbers since 2004 when he took over the reigns from Kurt Warner. Manning ranks third all-time in touchdowns behind Simms (199) and Conerly (173) with 156. Simms needed 14 years and Conerly 13 years to amass those numbers. Eli is on pace to break Simms' record in about 2 years. So by the end of 2012, Eli's 8th year in the league, he will have set the all-time mark for touchdowns by a Giants QB.
Eli's detractors will point out that he throws too many interceptions. Yes, Eli has thrown 113 INT's and is thrid all-time in that category as a Giant. However, Eli has the same interception rate as Phil Simms, 3.4%. That puts him ahead of Norm Snead, Charlie Conerly, Y.A. Tittle, and Fran Tarkenton to name a few. What makes that even more remarkable is Eli is second all-time in completions for a Giants QB and should surpass Simms in another 2 years. He is also second in career attempts so Eli has thrown a helluva lot more balls than some Hall of Famers and still has a lower interception percentage.
Eli's detractors will point out Eli doesn't win football games. Well, Eli owns a 60-43 mark as a QB. Only Phil Simms has more wins (95-64) than Eli. However, Eli bests Phil in career QB rating, 80.2 to 78.5. Quarterback rating is the only place Eli doesn't shine when compared with his Giants contemporaries.
Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback? Well, maybe he is. He is certainly the best quarterback the Giants have ever had and is on pace to set every single record for Giants QB's. There have only been four seasons in which a Giants quarterback has thrown for over 4,000 yards. Eli is the only one to do it twice. Eli is also only the second Giants QB to ever throw for 30 TD's in a season. Y.A. Tittle did it twice. Of the top ten all-time single season touchdown leaders, Eli makes the list five times. Tarkenton and Tittle make the list twice and Simms just once. Oh, and his 62.9 completion percentage from last season ranks tops all-time for a Giants QB.
Say what you want about Eli Manning. The facts are he is arguably the best quarterback the Giants have ever had. A case can be made for Tittle but he only played a few years for the Giants. Sure, a case can be made for Simms but the numbers show Manning is better. Is he elite? Well, Giants fans shouldn't be complaining about Eli to say the least.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Some NFL Predictions
I figured I would throw out some predictions for this upcoming football season. Why not? The "experts" have a similar batting average as I do.
-The New York Giants, despite all of the tumult this offseason and the injuries this preseason will make the playoffs.
-Mike Vick will throw 14 or more INT's this year. He also won't play in all 16 Eagles games.
-The returns of kickoffs will drastically go down. Currently kicks are being run back from the halfway point of the endzone. Much of this can be attributed to guys trying to make NFL rosters and the only way they can do that is if they return the kicks for big yardage. Expect more touchbacks once the season starts. Currently, this preseason has seen 37% of kickoffs end up as touchbacks, up from 10% last year. That rate will only increase, probably somewhere close to 50% once the regular season starts.
-The Eagles will win the NFC East but won't get very far in the playoffs and certainly won't win the Super Bowl.
-The Raiders will not continue to improve and instead will regress this year. An 8-8 record is not gonna happen. 4-12 maybe, not 8-8 or 7-9.
-The Lions will make the playoffs IF Matthew Stafford stays healthy. Since he probably won't the Lions will once again miss the playoffs. But they are on the rise.
-Plaxico Burress will have more TD catches than Santonio Holmes.
-Eli Manning will throw less than 20 INT's this year. Hakeem Nicks will be a Pro Bowl WR and Mario Manningham will have over 1,000 yards receiving. And, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will each have 1,000 yards rushing.
-The Chicago Bears will not make the playoffs.
-The Green Bay Packers will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions but will win the North handily.
-Colt McCoy will show people he can be a QB in this league and will have better numbers than Joe Flacco.
-The Dallas Cowboys will finish the year 8-8.
-The Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs. Their toughest games are against division opponents (except the Bengals) and if the Browns can go .500 in their division they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
-The Denver Broncos will improve, by 2 games on last years 4-12 record and finish ahead of Oakland.
-The San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West.
-Nobody will care who wins the NFC West.
-The NFC South will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
-The Redskins will win less than 5 games.
-Ray Rice will lead the league in rushing.
-Larry Fitzgerald will lead the league in receptions.
-There won't be any arrests of New York Jets players during the regular season.
-Kansas City will go 8-0 at home.
-The loss of Terrell Thomas will hurt the Giants but it won't kill them. Prince Amukamara, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster will be able to fill the void well enough making this unit a huge strength going into 2012.
-Jason Pierre-Paul will have 13 sacks. Justin Tuck will have 12. And Osi Umenyiora will rack up 10 as the Giants lead the NFL in sacks.
Well, that's all for now. Got your own predictions? Click on the comments link and share 'em.
-The New York Giants, despite all of the tumult this offseason and the injuries this preseason will make the playoffs.
-Mike Vick will throw 14 or more INT's this year. He also won't play in all 16 Eagles games.
-The returns of kickoffs will drastically go down. Currently kicks are being run back from the halfway point of the endzone. Much of this can be attributed to guys trying to make NFL rosters and the only way they can do that is if they return the kicks for big yardage. Expect more touchbacks once the season starts. Currently, this preseason has seen 37% of kickoffs end up as touchbacks, up from 10% last year. That rate will only increase, probably somewhere close to 50% once the regular season starts.
-The Eagles will win the NFC East but won't get very far in the playoffs and certainly won't win the Super Bowl.
-The Raiders will not continue to improve and instead will regress this year. An 8-8 record is not gonna happen. 4-12 maybe, not 8-8 or 7-9.
-The Lions will make the playoffs IF Matthew Stafford stays healthy. Since he probably won't the Lions will once again miss the playoffs. But they are on the rise.
-Plaxico Burress will have more TD catches than Santonio Holmes.
-Eli Manning will throw less than 20 INT's this year. Hakeem Nicks will be a Pro Bowl WR and Mario Manningham will have over 1,000 yards receiving. And, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will each have 1,000 yards rushing.
-The Chicago Bears will not make the playoffs.
-The Green Bay Packers will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions but will win the North handily.
-Colt McCoy will show people he can be a QB in this league and will have better numbers than Joe Flacco.
-The Dallas Cowboys will finish the year 8-8.
-The Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs. Their toughest games are against division opponents (except the Bengals) and if the Browns can go .500 in their division they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
-The Denver Broncos will improve, by 2 games on last years 4-12 record and finish ahead of Oakland.
-The San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West.
-Nobody will care who wins the NFC West.
-The NFC South will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
-The Redskins will win less than 5 games.
-Ray Rice will lead the league in rushing.
-Larry Fitzgerald will lead the league in receptions.
-There won't be any arrests of New York Jets players during the regular season.
-Kansas City will go 8-0 at home.
-The loss of Terrell Thomas will hurt the Giants but it won't kill them. Prince Amukamara, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster will be able to fill the void well enough making this unit a huge strength going into 2012.
-Jason Pierre-Paul will have 13 sacks. Justin Tuck will have 12. And Osi Umenyiora will rack up 10 as the Giants lead the NFL in sacks.
Well, that's all for now. Got your own predictions? Click on the comments link and share 'em.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Weathermen aren't the only ones....
Wouldn't we all be so lucky at our jobs if we could routinely get stuff wrong and still show up the next day at our jobs? Well, unless you are a weatherman or Major League umpire, keep dreaming. Last night, home plate umpire Chad Fairchild forgot what a strike zone was supposed to look like, especially during Jorge Posada's at bat that ended the game and then Crew Chief Dana DeMuth got a home run call wrong AFTER video replay and then refused to comment about it after the game. Major League Baseball needs to crack down on these umpires. The strike zone shouldn't differ by umpire on a given night but rather by the batter's height. Letter to the knees, the width of home plate. Is this so hard? And as for Mr. DeMuth, someone needs to understand the ground rules of the ballpark he is the crew chief in! Seriously, this is a home run, a play you have time to take a video replay on. And then, to add insult to injury, you refuse to comment, thereby refusing to take accountability or offer an explanation on the call? The audacity! The nerve. Umpires should always be a peripheral of the game, something that is part of the game but isn't THE game. When umps do this kind of stuff, thumbing their noses at the teams and the fans, that crosses a line. What's next? Umps ejecting fans for booing?
Needless to say I am not a fan of umpires. They don't enforce rules when they should, such as the 12 second rule between pitches, routinely letting pitchers take up to 30 seconds between pitches with nobody on base. If MLB were serious about speeding up the games they should enforce this rule instead of sending a note to a pitcher asking them to speed it up. Take longer than 12 seconds? Ball. Wanna do it again? Ball. And the same goes for hitters. Who needs to adjust batting gloves after every pitch? Seriously, you didn't even swing and you need to step out of the box? Stop it. Check out a game from the 1970's or early 1980's and check how many times batters stepped out of the box. Count how many seconds between pitches. How come games back then took about 2 hours and today we have to sit through games twice as long? I can understand a slugfest where outs are impossible to come by, like A.J. Burnett pitching against Carlos Zambrano with no bullpen help, but a 3 hour pitchers duel? MLB needs to tell its umps to get on players that bore us into not giving a damn anymore. I really have time to go take a leak between John Lackey pitches? I could have done that and gotten a beer with Steve Tracshel on the bump. Enforce the damn rules or eliminate them. And make the umpires accountable for calls they make. If MLB wants to keep the human element in the game then force the humans to be held accountable for calls they make.
Needless to say I am not a fan of umpires. They don't enforce rules when they should, such as the 12 second rule between pitches, routinely letting pitchers take up to 30 seconds between pitches with nobody on base. If MLB were serious about speeding up the games they should enforce this rule instead of sending a note to a pitcher asking them to speed it up. Take longer than 12 seconds? Ball. Wanna do it again? Ball. And the same goes for hitters. Who needs to adjust batting gloves after every pitch? Seriously, you didn't even swing and you need to step out of the box? Stop it. Check out a game from the 1970's or early 1980's and check how many times batters stepped out of the box. Count how many seconds between pitches. How come games back then took about 2 hours and today we have to sit through games twice as long? I can understand a slugfest where outs are impossible to come by, like A.J. Burnett pitching against Carlos Zambrano with no bullpen help, but a 3 hour pitchers duel? MLB needs to tell its umps to get on players that bore us into not giving a damn anymore. I really have time to go take a leak between John Lackey pitches? I could have done that and gotten a beer with Steve Tracshel on the bump. Enforce the damn rules or eliminate them. And make the umpires accountable for calls they make. If MLB wants to keep the human element in the game then force the humans to be held accountable for calls they make.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
You Don't Win Super Bowls in August
The NFL lockout is over and teams have started their training camps. Some NFL free agents are still looking for homes and the Eagles have been declared the winners of the free agent signing frenzy that saw over 130 players switch teams in a little over a week. Media comparisons between the Eagles offseason and that of the Miami Heat last year are already making the rounds. I say rubbish. Yes, rubbish. You don't win Super Bowls in August. It has never happened and will never happen. Football is a game of attrition. It is 16 games over 17 weeks of pounding and pain. Players get hurt and others have off years. Before I go anointing the Eagles the 2012 Super Bowl Champion I would like everyone to take a few things under consideration:
-Michael Vick has only played in all 16 games once during his entire career, in 2006. He has played in 15 3 times and last year missed 4 weeks due to injury. He is not an iron man and the Eagles backup is Vince Young who has talent but is new to the system and has had issues in the past showing he can learn a teams system and thrive in it.
-There is a reason they play the games. As a Giants fan I came to truly understand this during the 2007 Super Bowl run. I, like most people in this country, had only a slight glimmer of hope that the Giants would beat the previously unbeaten Patriots. Well, they did and the Giants got the parade. The Patriots will only be remembered as the team that couldn't seal the deal. Like the 2001 Mariners. Nobody remembers they broke the record for the most wins in the AL in a regular season because they didn't win in the playoffs.
-Because of the lockout there is precious little time for new players to learn and adapt to new offensive and defensive schemes. This could possibly hurt teams that are relying on new free agents or rookies to make an immediate impact. Hell, its hard for players to learn new systems with full camps and access to playbooks starting in June and July and it is sometimes evident in the first weeks of a season. Now, they have 1-2 fewer months to get up to speed. This could mean certain players who are expected to make an impact right away might not do so until midway through the season.
-The Eagles start off their year in St. Louis and Atlanta followed by a home game against the Giants. If Philly loses in week 1 to St. Louis there will be a lot of pressure on this team to go into Atlanta and beat a Super Bowl contender in their own building which is tough. Then, they have to face a team that still remembers the sting left from that comeback win last December that knocked the Giants out of the playoffs. You can bet the Giants will be ready for that game. Can you imagine the pressure on the Eagles if they go into the Linc 0-2 with the Giants opening the Season in Philly? It is true that the Eagles could already be flying high and go into that game 2-0 with a confidence that comes with going into Atlanta and beating them at home.
-Much has been made about the new Eagles secondary after the addition of Dominque Rogers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha to Asante Samuel. But their linebacking corps lacks experience and impact. Sure, Casey Matthews has a lot of potential but he won't be a clone of his brother. Of course, as I write this the Eagles might be in negotiations to bring in a linebacker or two to shore up a unit that is, at the current moment, unimpressive.
-Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, two very good players from the Titans and Packers respectively, were brought in to shore up the defensive line which is led by Trent Cole. Cole is a very nice player, and had 10.0 sacks last year and 12.5 the year before. However, Jason Babin is coming off a career year where he recorded 12.5 sacks. He was in Philly in 2009 and despite playing in 16 games, only managed 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Could he have just broken out last year? Yeah, sure he could have. Could he have benefitted from Jeff Fisher's defensive schemes? Yes, that is possible as well. Call me a skeptic, but a guy who suddenly finds his game at 30 in the NFL makes me a little wary. Where was his supposed talent in Houston, Kansas City, and Philly before? As for Cullen Jenkins, he too is coming off of a career year, recording 7 sacks in only 11 games. Not bad. But that was as a 300+ lbs. defensive end. Most likely, Philly will have him play inside a lot more where he will be more susceptible to double teams. He has the power to shed them but, from what I have seen, he doesn't have much finesse. A quick look at Jenkins' sacks shows you he got them playing against some pretty mediocre offensive lines. He got 2 against San Francisco on December 5th, 1 each against Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit. Out of that group Atlanta had the best O-line. Jenkins just doesn't strike me as an impact player. Could I be wrong? Yes. But I am willing to bet Jenkins goes down for at least 2 games with an injury.
-I rely on history an awful lot. History has shown us that teams that bring in a boatload of new faces generally don't click right away. Last year's Miami Heat come to mind. The South Beach Trio had some trouble clicking early on and in the Finals their lack of depth caused them big problems. The 1992 Mets spent a then-ridiculous amount of money of what they hoped was a return to their late 1980's glory. Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray, Bret Saberhagen, and Vince Coleman were brought in and the Mets flopped, becoming more famous for their off-field antics than their on-field heroics. Then there were the Cowboys the last couple of seasons. They were a sexy choice to win it all the last couple of seasons. They failed to live up to expectations. Granted, Andy Reid is not Wade Phillips but sometimes teams struggle to live up to the hype. Then of course, there is the 2008 Giants team. They were great, Super Bowl contenders, then their season went up in the smoke of Plaxico's gun. Or the 2009 Giants that started 5-0 and finished 8-8. Football has a strange aura about it. Sometimes great teams flop while teams emerge from out of nowhere and make a run. The Bears were supposed to be awful last year and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks weren't even supposed to make the playoffs but did so with a losing record and then went out and trounced New Orleans.
You just never know in the NFL. This is why Super Bowl Champions are not crowned in August. The NFL season is long and teams are literally one injury away from being Super Bowl contenders to pretenders to chicken tenders. You play the games for a reason. Go ahead and crow Eagles fans, you have had a great offseason. Sadly, there is no award for good offseasons. Super Bowl titles are earned on the field not by the contracts that are signed.
-Michael Vick has only played in all 16 games once during his entire career, in 2006. He has played in 15 3 times and last year missed 4 weeks due to injury. He is not an iron man and the Eagles backup is Vince Young who has talent but is new to the system and has had issues in the past showing he can learn a teams system and thrive in it.
-There is a reason they play the games. As a Giants fan I came to truly understand this during the 2007 Super Bowl run. I, like most people in this country, had only a slight glimmer of hope that the Giants would beat the previously unbeaten Patriots. Well, they did and the Giants got the parade. The Patriots will only be remembered as the team that couldn't seal the deal. Like the 2001 Mariners. Nobody remembers they broke the record for the most wins in the AL in a regular season because they didn't win in the playoffs.
-Because of the lockout there is precious little time for new players to learn and adapt to new offensive and defensive schemes. This could possibly hurt teams that are relying on new free agents or rookies to make an immediate impact. Hell, its hard for players to learn new systems with full camps and access to playbooks starting in June and July and it is sometimes evident in the first weeks of a season. Now, they have 1-2 fewer months to get up to speed. This could mean certain players who are expected to make an impact right away might not do so until midway through the season.
-The Eagles start off their year in St. Louis and Atlanta followed by a home game against the Giants. If Philly loses in week 1 to St. Louis there will be a lot of pressure on this team to go into Atlanta and beat a Super Bowl contender in their own building which is tough. Then, they have to face a team that still remembers the sting left from that comeback win last December that knocked the Giants out of the playoffs. You can bet the Giants will be ready for that game. Can you imagine the pressure on the Eagles if they go into the Linc 0-2 with the Giants opening the Season in Philly? It is true that the Eagles could already be flying high and go into that game 2-0 with a confidence that comes with going into Atlanta and beating them at home.
-Much has been made about the new Eagles secondary after the addition of Dominque Rogers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha to Asante Samuel. But their linebacking corps lacks experience and impact. Sure, Casey Matthews has a lot of potential but he won't be a clone of his brother. Of course, as I write this the Eagles might be in negotiations to bring in a linebacker or two to shore up a unit that is, at the current moment, unimpressive.
-Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, two very good players from the Titans and Packers respectively, were brought in to shore up the defensive line which is led by Trent Cole. Cole is a very nice player, and had 10.0 sacks last year and 12.5 the year before. However, Jason Babin is coming off a career year where he recorded 12.5 sacks. He was in Philly in 2009 and despite playing in 16 games, only managed 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Could he have just broken out last year? Yeah, sure he could have. Could he have benefitted from Jeff Fisher's defensive schemes? Yes, that is possible as well. Call me a skeptic, but a guy who suddenly finds his game at 30 in the NFL makes me a little wary. Where was his supposed talent in Houston, Kansas City, and Philly before? As for Cullen Jenkins, he too is coming off of a career year, recording 7 sacks in only 11 games. Not bad. But that was as a 300+ lbs. defensive end. Most likely, Philly will have him play inside a lot more where he will be more susceptible to double teams. He has the power to shed them but, from what I have seen, he doesn't have much finesse. A quick look at Jenkins' sacks shows you he got them playing against some pretty mediocre offensive lines. He got 2 against San Francisco on December 5th, 1 each against Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit. Out of that group Atlanta had the best O-line. Jenkins just doesn't strike me as an impact player. Could I be wrong? Yes. But I am willing to bet Jenkins goes down for at least 2 games with an injury.
-I rely on history an awful lot. History has shown us that teams that bring in a boatload of new faces generally don't click right away. Last year's Miami Heat come to mind. The South Beach Trio had some trouble clicking early on and in the Finals their lack of depth caused them big problems. The 1992 Mets spent a then-ridiculous amount of money of what they hoped was a return to their late 1980's glory. Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray, Bret Saberhagen, and Vince Coleman were brought in and the Mets flopped, becoming more famous for their off-field antics than their on-field heroics. Then there were the Cowboys the last couple of seasons. They were a sexy choice to win it all the last couple of seasons. They failed to live up to expectations. Granted, Andy Reid is not Wade Phillips but sometimes teams struggle to live up to the hype. Then of course, there is the 2008 Giants team. They were great, Super Bowl contenders, then their season went up in the smoke of Plaxico's gun. Or the 2009 Giants that started 5-0 and finished 8-8. Football has a strange aura about it. Sometimes great teams flop while teams emerge from out of nowhere and make a run. The Bears were supposed to be awful last year and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks weren't even supposed to make the playoffs but did so with a losing record and then went out and trounced New Orleans.
You just never know in the NFL. This is why Super Bowl Champions are not crowned in August. The NFL season is long and teams are literally one injury away from being Super Bowl contenders to pretenders to chicken tenders. You play the games for a reason. Go ahead and crow Eagles fans, you have had a great offseason. Sadly, there is no award for good offseasons. Super Bowl titles are earned on the field not by the contracts that are signed.
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