You Don't Win Super Bowls in August

The NFL lockout is over and teams have started their training camps.  Some NFL free agents are still looking for homes and the Eagles have been declared the winners of the free agent signing frenzy that saw over 130 players switch teams in a little over a week.  Media comparisons between the Eagles offseason and that of the Miami Heat last year are already making the rounds.  I say rubbish.  Yes, rubbish.  You don't win Super Bowls in August.  It has never happened and will never happen.  Football is a game of attrition.  It is 16 games over 17 weeks of pounding and pain.  Players get hurt and others have off years.  Before I go anointing the Eagles the 2012 Super Bowl Champion I would like everyone to take a few things under consideration:

-Michael Vick has only played in all 16 games once during his entire career, in 2006.  He has played in 15 3 times and last year missed 4 weeks due to injury.  He is not an iron man and the Eagles backup is Vince Young who has talent but is new to the system and has had issues in the past showing he can learn a teams system and thrive in it.

-There is a reason they play the games.  As a Giants fan I came to truly understand this during the 2007 Super Bowl run.  I, like most people in this country, had only a slight glimmer of hope that the Giants would beat the previously unbeaten Patriots.  Well, they did and the Giants got the parade.  The Patriots will only be remembered as the team that couldn't seal the deal.  Like the 2001 Mariners.  Nobody remembers they broke the record for the most wins in the AL in a regular season because they didn't win in the playoffs.

-Because of the lockout there is precious little time for new players to learn and adapt to new offensive and defensive schemes.  This could possibly hurt teams that are relying on new free agents or rookies to make an immediate impact.  Hell, its hard for players to learn new systems with full camps and access to playbooks starting in June and July and it is sometimes evident in the first weeks of a season.  Now, they have 1-2 fewer months to get up to speed.  This could mean certain players who are expected to make an impact right away might not do so until midway through the season.

-The Eagles start off their year in St. Louis and Atlanta followed by a home game against the Giants.  If Philly loses in week 1 to St. Louis there will be a lot of pressure on this team to go into Atlanta and beat a Super Bowl contender in their own building which is tough.  Then, they have to face a team that still remembers the sting left from that comeback win last December that knocked the Giants out of the playoffs.  You can bet the Giants will be ready for that game.  Can you imagine the pressure on the Eagles if they go into the Linc 0-2 with the Giants opening the Season in Philly?  It is true that the Eagles could already be flying high and go into that game 2-0 with a confidence that comes with going into Atlanta and beating them at home.

-Much has been made about the new Eagles secondary after the addition of Dominque Rogers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha to Asante Samuel.  But their linebacking corps lacks experience and impact.  Sure, Casey Matthews has a lot of potential but he won't be a clone of his brother.  Of course, as I write this the Eagles might be in negotiations to bring in a linebacker or two to shore up a unit that is, at the current moment, unimpressive.

-Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, two very good players from the Titans and Packers respectively, were brought in to shore up the defensive line which is led by Trent Cole.  Cole is a very nice player, and had 10.0 sacks last year and 12.5 the year before.  However, Jason Babin is coming off a career year where he recorded 12.5 sacks.  He was in Philly in 2009 and despite playing in 16 games, only managed 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks.  Could he have just broken out last year?  Yeah, sure he could have.  Could he have benefitted from Jeff Fisher's defensive schemes?  Yes, that is possible as well.  Call me a skeptic, but a guy who suddenly finds his game at 30 in the NFL makes me a little wary.  Where was his supposed talent in Houston, Kansas City, and Philly before?  As for Cullen Jenkins, he too is coming off of a career year, recording 7 sacks in only 11 games.  Not bad.  But that was as a 300+ lbs. defensive end.  Most likely, Philly will have him play inside a lot more where he will be more susceptible to double teams.  He has the power to shed them but, from what I have seen, he doesn't have much finesse.  A quick look at Jenkins' sacks shows you he got them playing against some pretty mediocre offensive lines.  He got 2 against San Francisco on December 5th, 1 each against Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit.  Out of that group Atlanta had the best O-line.  Jenkins just doesn't strike me as an impact player.  Could I be wrong?  Yes.  But I am willing to bet Jenkins goes down for at least 2 games with an injury.

-I rely on history an awful lot.  History has shown us that teams that bring in a boatload of new faces generally don't click right away.  Last year's Miami Heat come to mind.  The South Beach Trio had some trouble clicking early on and in the Finals their lack of depth caused them big problems.  The 1992 Mets spent a then-ridiculous amount of money of what they hoped was a return to their late 1980's glory.  Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray, Bret Saberhagen, and Vince Coleman were brought in and the Mets flopped, becoming more famous for their off-field antics than their on-field heroics.  Then there were the Cowboys the last couple of seasons.  They were a sexy choice to win it all the last couple of seasons.  They failed to live up to expectations.  Granted, Andy Reid is not Wade Phillips but sometimes teams struggle to live up to the hype.  Then of course, there is the 2008 Giants team.  They were great, Super Bowl contenders, then their season went up in the smoke of Plaxico's gun.  Or the 2009 Giants that started 5-0 and finished 8-8.  Football has a strange aura about it.  Sometimes great teams flop while teams emerge from out of nowhere and make a run.  The Bears were supposed to be awful last year and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game.  The Seahawks weren't even supposed to make the playoffs but did so with a losing record and then went out and trounced New Orleans.


You just never know in the NFL.  This is why Super Bowl Champions are not crowned in August.  The NFL season is long and teams are literally one injury away from being Super Bowl contenders to pretenders to chicken tenders.  You play the games for a reason.  Go ahead and crow Eagles fans, you have had a great offseason.  Sadly, there is no award for good offseasons.  Super Bowl titles are earned on the field not by the contracts that are signed.