The Yankees are entering this offseason without a lot of fanfare. There is no C.C. Sabathia (well, not since the Yankees re-signed him anyway), no Cliff Lee, and no Mark Teixeira. There is an Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder but the Yankees are not going to go after those two because they are set at first base. The general consensus is that Texas Rangers lefty C.J. Wilson is the best starter on the market. However, his October struggles this year might have scared a couple of teams away from offering him a big contract, including the Yankees. However, Wilson did go 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA with 206 strikeouts in 223.1 regular season innings. that stands in stark contrast to his postseason numbers of 0-3, 5.79 ERA, and 26 K's in 28 innings. He walked 19 batters in the postseason and gave up 6 homers after walking 74 and giving up 16 homers during the regular season. Which pitcher is Wilson? That is the question Yankees GM Brian Cashman needs to ask himself and find out an answer to. Is Wilson worth an offer similar to the one the Yankees offered Cliff Lee? No. Is he worth an offer similar to A.J. Burnett? Yes, I would say so. Surely Wilson is better than A.J. and better than John Lackey so he will get a bigger contract than those two. The question is, can Cashman afford to have Wilson, Sabathia, and Burnett on the same payroll? Not many teams would be able to. The Yankees can afford it but it hampers their long-term flexibility.
The Yankees need a number two starter. Ivan Nova certainly gave the Yankees a lot of hope down the stretch last season and they have to hope he continues to develop along those lines. However, young pitching can be very finicky as evidenced by Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Counting on young pitching is not something the Yankees can afford but will gladly take contributions from if available. Will Phil Hughes bounce back and resemble the guy who won 18 games only two seasons ago? Will Ivan Nova fall back to earth or will he continue to exceed expectations? Will A.J. Burnett contribute anything of value going forward or will he just be a newer version of Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, Kenny Rogers, or Javier Vazquez? Will the Yankees roll the dice on guys like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon again and hope they can contribute as they did last season? Surely Freddy Garcia deserves a new deal, nothing long term but something. There are so many questions surrounding the Yankees rotation for the second straight year. Cashman needs to find a solution. Wilson is the biggest name but is he the best solution?
Cashman has a couple of options entering the free agency period. He can avoid giving up a draft pick for someone like Wilson and bid to receive the services of Japanese ace Yu Darvish. There is a lot of talk about the Yankees past experiences with Japanese pitchers but Darvish is not Hideki Irabu or Kei Igawa. The Yankees admitted they didn't scout Igawa enough and reacted to the Red Sox signing of Daiske Matsuzaka. Darvish is only 25 years old and has pitched well in world tournaments like the World Baseball Classic. Sure, the history of Japanese pitchers having great success in the Major Leagues is not the best but it isn't devoid of success. Can Darvish buck the trend? Darvish is a high risk-high reward prospect, someone who can either be that top starter or someone who will remind the Yankees never to dabble in Japanese pitching ever again. Then again, nobody thought Japanese hitters could survive in the Majors and yet Ichiro is one his way to a Hall of Fame career and Hideki Matsui was the Yankees World Series MVP in 2009 so you can't judge one person based on the experiences of others. I would like to see the Yankees go after Darvish who I am willing to bet will be better than Igawa and Irabu. Most importantly, signing Darvish won't require the surrender of a draft pick. No matter what the Yankees do, if Darvish is posted they should make every attempt to get him. He might not be an ace but he might be good enough to hold down the fort while prospects like Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos get more seasoning at AAA. Darvish also represents a safer option to C.J. Wilson because he is five years younger and has, at this stage, a more lively fastball.
Cashman has gone into this offseason preaching about being conservative. What this means exactly is anybody's guess. It could mean he will chase someone like Mark Buehrle, who has pitched his entire career in the American League and has shown he can shut down an opposing offense on any given day as evidenced by his perfect game. Buehrle has not pitched less than 200 innings since his rookie campaign in 2001 so health is not a huge concern. He is 32 years old so age and mileage might come into question if he is asking for a long term deal. However, he is a known commodity, one that will give your team a chance to win every time out. His career ERA sits at 3.83, not bad considering he played a majority of his career in the steroids era of the longball and big offense. He won 13 games last year for a horrible White Sox club and posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while owning a 4.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and .92 HR/9 and getting hitters to hit groundballs 44.9% of the time. Not terrible. On the surface Buehrle reminds me a lot of Andy Pettitte and, if he doesn't require a long term deal, could be just what the Yankees are looking for. He is no stranger to postseason play, having won a World Series with the White sox. His groundball numbers will not be a problem with the Yankees defense playing behind him so Buehrle could thrive in Yankee Stadium.
Right now the Yankees don't have much in the way of top prospects ready to contribute at the Major League level. Sure, Betances and Banuelos will be at AAA but they haven't exactly had much experience beyond a few starts at that level. Betaces got his feet wet this year and showed real promise but that is such a limited sample size you can't take anything away from that. Adam Warren and David Phelps are the two starters most ready for the majors but neither is projected as a top of the rotation starter. Granted, neither was Ivan Nova and look at what he gave the Yankees this year. However, do the Yankees want to enter the 2012 season with a rotation of Sabathia, Hughes, Garcia, Nova, and Burnett and Warren/Phelps battling amongst Garcia, Hughes, and Nova for a spot? Would the Yankees be better off with Sabathia, Buehrle, Nova, Hughes, and Burnett with Darvish/Warren/Phelps waiting in the minors to take over? Maybe Hughes goes to the bullpen and if he does that further complicates matters. Maybe the Yankees aren't planning on bringing A.J. along for the ride anymore. Maybe Cashman is comfortable using Warren and Phelps until Betances and Banuelos are ready. If I know the Yankees I think they will bring back Garcia, sign a pitcher or two amongst the Wilson, Darvish, and Buehrle group, maybe add another starter from among the second tier pitchers like Edwin Jackson for good measure, and hope that they have a surplus of pitching so that they can trade for any spare parts that pop up along the way while being able to retain top prospects like Jesus Montero, Banuelos, Betances, and Gary Sanchez. One thing is certain, the Yankees do not need much, if any help on the offensive side of the ball. This offseason should be all about stockpiling pitching because we have seen it is pitching that wins championships and having too much doesn't exist.
No comments:
Post a Comment