Monday, June 27, 2011

Trade Candidates

July is almost here and the MLB rumor mill is starting to spin up. If you listen closely you can hear the gears starting to grind. This year things might be a little different. It seems as if some parody has crept into the Major League Baseball landscape making trading partners that much harder to find for teams that want to bolster their roster for playoff push. Even the 32-44 Minnesota Twins have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs right now, or maybe they did before their entire outfield landed on the DL and they lost five straight. Houston, San Diego, the Chicago Cubs, and perhaps the Royals all figure to be sellers when the dust settles. The Mets can go either way, as can the Pirates, Marlins and Dodgers. The White Sox could also look to unload a player or two. Well, let's take an early look at some of the guys who might be moved before or at the deadline.

Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs. Dempster figures to be one of the few starters put on the market with a proven track record. He can strike hitters out, has shown he can win as a starter (48 wins over the last 4 seasons) and would fit in nicely in just about any needy contenders rotation, especially at the back end. He is 34 years old and holds a player option for next season. He signed a 3-year deal worth $38 million which isn't terrible in today's market for a #2-3 starting pitcher. The numbers are eerily similar to A.J. Burnett, only Dempster used to be a pretty good closer at one point. A team like the Yankees might be looking for pitching help. Phil Hughes is still on the DL, though he is rehabbing right now and cold return in a couple of weeks. Bartolo Colon is on the DL with a leg injury but he hasn't exactly had the best track record in recent years in regards to health. The Yankees have been connected to Dempster once this season, right around the Yankees visit to Wrigley. I would expect Dempster to exercise his right to become a free agent as he looks for one last good contract so he will be a rental player and shouldn't command a ton in prospects. Other potential suitors could be the Cleveland Indians where veteran presence in a rotation filled with unproven kids and Fausto Carmona is needed for a playoff push; the Arizona Diamondbacks whom nobody expected to contend and whose rotation is led by Ian Kennedy, a nice pitcher but not an ace; and the Texas Rangers who might be looking for some pitching help after Alexi Ogando has been getting rocked in his past couple of starts and might be better suited for the bullpen.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mets. K-Rod has been having himself an excellent season so far. Bullpen help always seem to be a number one need of most playoff bound teams and adding K-Rod to either set-up or close games would be a huge bonus, at least in theory. K-Rod has announced he would be willing to set-up for a contender so that automatically put the Yankees in the conversation but I don't see them getting involved. The Yankees already have Rafael Soriano under contract to provide setup help for Mariano Rivera. Instead, I see the Texas Rangers being the biggest suitor for K-Rod. They can have him set-up this year and then move to the closer spot next year while shifting Neftali Feliz to a starting spot. The Boston Red Sox might be another landing spot for K-Rod. The Red Sox bullpen has been pounded by injuries and with the future status of Jonathan Papelbon up in the air the Red Sox might decide to pull the trigger on a deal here.

Heath Bell, RP, Padres. Another closer for a team out of contention, Bell has been consistent over the past few years and might be one of baseballs most underrated closers. Since the Phillies can't hope to pry K-Rod away from the Mets, Bell might be the apple of their eye. Ryan Madson has been filling in very well for Brad Lidge going 15 for 16 in save chances. However, I don't know if the Phillies are better with Madson closing over Heath Bell. Acquiring Bell would enable the Phillies to slide Madson into a setup role (or to place Bell there if they so desire) and strengthen a so-so bullpen. And, if Lidge makes it back there is another reliable arm with playoff experience to add to the mix. The Cardinals could also be in the market for Bell. Currently the Cardinals are relying on Fernando Salas to close their games. He has been good but isn't a known entity like Bell. The Rangers could also be in the mix.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and figure to be sellers once their ownership situation gets settled. Rodriguez is probably their best trade chip and could command a nice haul of prospects to help rebuild. The Yankees might be in the mix since he represents a longer term option than Dempster and is two years younger than Dempster. The problem is finding out who is running the Astros and dealing with them. The Astros will treat Rodriguez like an ace in negotiations when he is more like #2-3 guy. I don't know if the Yankees would be willing to pay the ransom price for him but with few starting pitchers of value on the market they might have no choice if they don't see any options in the minors.

Michael Bourn, OF, Astros. Speed is reemerging in baseball and few possess the talents of Bourn who is leading the majors in stolen bases. He can hit leadoff and immediately get into scoring position. He has ten steals of third among his 33 stolen bases on the year so he is a threat. He is decednt in getting on base, doing so at a .351 clip so far this season. Bourn would be a boon to just about any team right now with a slim margin of making the playoffs. However, you can forget about the Yankees and Red Sox getting involved, they already have a quite a few good outfielders on their rosters. The Indians have a need in the outfield where Austin Kearns and his sub-.200 average are patrolling the outfield with Shelley Duncan the backup, or vice versa. Michael Brantley is ok as a leadoff guy but doesn't have nearly the speed and dynamic ability to change the game as Bourn does.

Brett Myers, SP, Astros. Diminished velocity and extreme fly ball rate are not exactly formulas for success. Myers has survived due to, well I don't know how he has survived...perhaps lack of options in Houston. Myers is only 30, and is currently sporting a 4.65 ERA in the pitcher friendly National League. His fastball sits around 87 MPH and has served up 1.81 HR/9 this year. To make him even more prohibitive, he is due to earn $11 million next season and can be bought out for $3 million after 2012, or his option can be picked up for a cool $10 million. I really don't see a good landing spot for Myers. The numbers don't add up and the Astros are sure to treat him like the ace he was last year but is definitely not this year. Maybe, if the Astros pick up a portion of the salary and don't ask for a lot in prospects they might be able to find a taker.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets. If the Mets decide to become sellers, Beltran would be one of their biggest trade chips and one who might garner the most interest. Several teams in need of some offensive pop could jump into the Beltran pool. Teams like the Twins, Rangers (although they seem set at OF they do have some injury prone OF'ers), Giants, and maybe even the Yankees could put their toes in the water.

Jose Reyes, SS, Mets. Reyes said he won't discuss a contract extension during the season so he is primed to hit the open market. The Mets right now are hovering around .500 and trading Reyes, who is arguably the National League's most dynamic player, would send shockwaves through an already shellshocked fanbase. If the Mets feel they can get better value than the two first round picks in next year's draft then they should bite. Still, Reyes is just a rental player so the chances of finding someone willing to take on a player who has announced he will test the market are going to be slim at that price. The Reyes situation mirrors the Mets season, in or out? Contending or not? Trade or no trade? Perhaps the Mets should hold onto Reyes and get the two draft picks. Or maybe they should trade him. Thankfully, I'm not Sandy Alderson whom I do not envy in this situation.



There are plenty more players out there who could make an impact at the deadline. Jason Kubel of the Twins, Joakim Soria and Jeff Francoueur of the Royals, and Mark Beurhle, Edwin Jackson, and John Danks of the White Sox all could be major chips cashed in by their respective teams. I will revisit this subject later.

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