Recently Eli Manning came under fire from various circles because he considered himself an elite quarterback. Many of those taking fire at Eli were Giants fans. In fact, during the Giants preseason home opener against the Bears on August 22nd, there was a sign scrawled on a bedsheet that read "Eli-te? Show us!" As many of you know I am a Giants fan and I just don't understand the hatred some Giants fans show towards Eli. So, as any history major would do I did some research.
Many Giants fans consider Phil Simms to be the greatest Giants QB in the modern era. Also in this category are Y.A. Tittle, Fran Tarkenton, Charlie Conerly and even Kerry Collins. Eli Manning has a better career (during their time with the Giants) completion percentage than any of those except Kerry Collins who beats Manning by .5%. Manning has a higher completion percentage with the Giants than Hall of Famers Tittle, Tarkenton, and Conerly. Manning ranks second all-time in passing yardage with 22,646. Phil Simms leads all Giants QB's with an all-time mark of 33,462. The major difference is Simms, who was my favorite Giant growing up, had from 1979 to 1993 to amass that yardage. Eli has amassed his numbers since 2004 when he took over the reigns from Kurt Warner. Manning ranks third all-time in touchdowns behind Simms (199) and Conerly (173) with 156. Simms needed 14 years and Conerly 13 years to amass those numbers. Eli is on pace to break Simms' record in about 2 years. So by the end of 2012, Eli's 8th year in the league, he will have set the all-time mark for touchdowns by a Giants QB.
Eli's detractors will point out that he throws too many interceptions. Yes, Eli has thrown 113 INT's and is thrid all-time in that category as a Giant. However, Eli has the same interception rate as Phil Simms, 3.4%. That puts him ahead of Norm Snead, Charlie Conerly, Y.A. Tittle, and Fran Tarkenton to name a few. What makes that even more remarkable is Eli is second all-time in completions for a Giants QB and should surpass Simms in another 2 years. He is also second in career attempts so Eli has thrown a helluva lot more balls than some Hall of Famers and still has a lower interception percentage.
Eli's detractors will point out Eli doesn't win football games. Well, Eli owns a 60-43 mark as a QB. Only Phil Simms has more wins (95-64) than Eli. However, Eli bests Phil in career QB rating, 80.2 to 78.5. Quarterback rating is the only place Eli doesn't shine when compared with his Giants contemporaries.
Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback? Well, maybe he is. He is certainly the best quarterback the Giants have ever had and is on pace to set every single record for Giants QB's. There have only been four seasons in which a Giants quarterback has thrown for over 4,000 yards. Eli is the only one to do it twice. Eli is also only the second Giants QB to ever throw for 30 TD's in a season. Y.A. Tittle did it twice. Of the top ten all-time single season touchdown leaders, Eli makes the list five times. Tarkenton and Tittle make the list twice and Simms just once. Oh, and his 62.9 completion percentage from last season ranks tops all-time for a Giants QB.
Say what you want about Eli Manning. The facts are he is arguably the best quarterback the Giants have ever had. A case can be made for Tittle but he only played a few years for the Giants. Sure, a case can be made for Simms but the numbers show Manning is better. Is he elite? Well, Giants fans shouldn't be complaining about Eli to say the least.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Some NFL Predictions
I figured I would throw out some predictions for this upcoming football season. Why not? The "experts" have a similar batting average as I do.
-The New York Giants, despite all of the tumult this offseason and the injuries this preseason will make the playoffs.
-Mike Vick will throw 14 or more INT's this year. He also won't play in all 16 Eagles games.
-The returns of kickoffs will drastically go down. Currently kicks are being run back from the halfway point of the endzone. Much of this can be attributed to guys trying to make NFL rosters and the only way they can do that is if they return the kicks for big yardage. Expect more touchbacks once the season starts. Currently, this preseason has seen 37% of kickoffs end up as touchbacks, up from 10% last year. That rate will only increase, probably somewhere close to 50% once the regular season starts.
-The Eagles will win the NFC East but won't get very far in the playoffs and certainly won't win the Super Bowl.
-The Raiders will not continue to improve and instead will regress this year. An 8-8 record is not gonna happen. 4-12 maybe, not 8-8 or 7-9.
-The Lions will make the playoffs IF Matthew Stafford stays healthy. Since he probably won't the Lions will once again miss the playoffs. But they are on the rise.
-Plaxico Burress will have more TD catches than Santonio Holmes.
-Eli Manning will throw less than 20 INT's this year. Hakeem Nicks will be a Pro Bowl WR and Mario Manningham will have over 1,000 yards receiving. And, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will each have 1,000 yards rushing.
-The Chicago Bears will not make the playoffs.
-The Green Bay Packers will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions but will win the North handily.
-Colt McCoy will show people he can be a QB in this league and will have better numbers than Joe Flacco.
-The Dallas Cowboys will finish the year 8-8.
-The Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs. Their toughest games are against division opponents (except the Bengals) and if the Browns can go .500 in their division they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
-The Denver Broncos will improve, by 2 games on last years 4-12 record and finish ahead of Oakland.
-The San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West.
-Nobody will care who wins the NFC West.
-The NFC South will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
-The Redskins will win less than 5 games.
-Ray Rice will lead the league in rushing.
-Larry Fitzgerald will lead the league in receptions.
-There won't be any arrests of New York Jets players during the regular season.
-Kansas City will go 8-0 at home.
-The loss of Terrell Thomas will hurt the Giants but it won't kill them. Prince Amukamara, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster will be able to fill the void well enough making this unit a huge strength going into 2012.
-Jason Pierre-Paul will have 13 sacks. Justin Tuck will have 12. And Osi Umenyiora will rack up 10 as the Giants lead the NFL in sacks.
Well, that's all for now. Got your own predictions? Click on the comments link and share 'em.
-The New York Giants, despite all of the tumult this offseason and the injuries this preseason will make the playoffs.
-Mike Vick will throw 14 or more INT's this year. He also won't play in all 16 Eagles games.
-The returns of kickoffs will drastically go down. Currently kicks are being run back from the halfway point of the endzone. Much of this can be attributed to guys trying to make NFL rosters and the only way they can do that is if they return the kicks for big yardage. Expect more touchbacks once the season starts. Currently, this preseason has seen 37% of kickoffs end up as touchbacks, up from 10% last year. That rate will only increase, probably somewhere close to 50% once the regular season starts.
-The Eagles will win the NFC East but won't get very far in the playoffs and certainly won't win the Super Bowl.
-The Raiders will not continue to improve and instead will regress this year. An 8-8 record is not gonna happen. 4-12 maybe, not 8-8 or 7-9.
-The Lions will make the playoffs IF Matthew Stafford stays healthy. Since he probably won't the Lions will once again miss the playoffs. But they are on the rise.
-Plaxico Burress will have more TD catches than Santonio Holmes.
-Eli Manning will throw less than 20 INT's this year. Hakeem Nicks will be a Pro Bowl WR and Mario Manningham will have over 1,000 yards receiving. And, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will each have 1,000 yards rushing.
-The Chicago Bears will not make the playoffs.
-The Green Bay Packers will not repeat as Super Bowl Champions but will win the North handily.
-Colt McCoy will show people he can be a QB in this league and will have better numbers than Joe Flacco.
-The Dallas Cowboys will finish the year 8-8.
-The Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs. Their toughest games are against division opponents (except the Bengals) and if the Browns can go .500 in their division they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
-The Denver Broncos will improve, by 2 games on last years 4-12 record and finish ahead of Oakland.
-The San Diego Chargers will win the AFC West.
-Nobody will care who wins the NFC West.
-The NFC South will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
-The Redskins will win less than 5 games.
-Ray Rice will lead the league in rushing.
-Larry Fitzgerald will lead the league in receptions.
-There won't be any arrests of New York Jets players during the regular season.
-Kansas City will go 8-0 at home.
-The loss of Terrell Thomas will hurt the Giants but it won't kill them. Prince Amukamara, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster will be able to fill the void well enough making this unit a huge strength going into 2012.
-Jason Pierre-Paul will have 13 sacks. Justin Tuck will have 12. And Osi Umenyiora will rack up 10 as the Giants lead the NFL in sacks.
Well, that's all for now. Got your own predictions? Click on the comments link and share 'em.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Weathermen aren't the only ones....
Wouldn't we all be so lucky at our jobs if we could routinely get stuff wrong and still show up the next day at our jobs? Well, unless you are a weatherman or Major League umpire, keep dreaming. Last night, home plate umpire Chad Fairchild forgot what a strike zone was supposed to look like, especially during Jorge Posada's at bat that ended the game and then Crew Chief Dana DeMuth got a home run call wrong AFTER video replay and then refused to comment about it after the game. Major League Baseball needs to crack down on these umpires. The strike zone shouldn't differ by umpire on a given night but rather by the batter's height. Letter to the knees, the width of home plate. Is this so hard? And as for Mr. DeMuth, someone needs to understand the ground rules of the ballpark he is the crew chief in! Seriously, this is a home run, a play you have time to take a video replay on. And then, to add insult to injury, you refuse to comment, thereby refusing to take accountability or offer an explanation on the call? The audacity! The nerve. Umpires should always be a peripheral of the game, something that is part of the game but isn't THE game. When umps do this kind of stuff, thumbing their noses at the teams and the fans, that crosses a line. What's next? Umps ejecting fans for booing?
Needless to say I am not a fan of umpires. They don't enforce rules when they should, such as the 12 second rule between pitches, routinely letting pitchers take up to 30 seconds between pitches with nobody on base. If MLB were serious about speeding up the games they should enforce this rule instead of sending a note to a pitcher asking them to speed it up. Take longer than 12 seconds? Ball. Wanna do it again? Ball. And the same goes for hitters. Who needs to adjust batting gloves after every pitch? Seriously, you didn't even swing and you need to step out of the box? Stop it. Check out a game from the 1970's or early 1980's and check how many times batters stepped out of the box. Count how many seconds between pitches. How come games back then took about 2 hours and today we have to sit through games twice as long? I can understand a slugfest where outs are impossible to come by, like A.J. Burnett pitching against Carlos Zambrano with no bullpen help, but a 3 hour pitchers duel? MLB needs to tell its umps to get on players that bore us into not giving a damn anymore. I really have time to go take a leak between John Lackey pitches? I could have done that and gotten a beer with Steve Tracshel on the bump. Enforce the damn rules or eliminate them. And make the umpires accountable for calls they make. If MLB wants to keep the human element in the game then force the humans to be held accountable for calls they make.
Needless to say I am not a fan of umpires. They don't enforce rules when they should, such as the 12 second rule between pitches, routinely letting pitchers take up to 30 seconds between pitches with nobody on base. If MLB were serious about speeding up the games they should enforce this rule instead of sending a note to a pitcher asking them to speed it up. Take longer than 12 seconds? Ball. Wanna do it again? Ball. And the same goes for hitters. Who needs to adjust batting gloves after every pitch? Seriously, you didn't even swing and you need to step out of the box? Stop it. Check out a game from the 1970's or early 1980's and check how many times batters stepped out of the box. Count how many seconds between pitches. How come games back then took about 2 hours and today we have to sit through games twice as long? I can understand a slugfest where outs are impossible to come by, like A.J. Burnett pitching against Carlos Zambrano with no bullpen help, but a 3 hour pitchers duel? MLB needs to tell its umps to get on players that bore us into not giving a damn anymore. I really have time to go take a leak between John Lackey pitches? I could have done that and gotten a beer with Steve Tracshel on the bump. Enforce the damn rules or eliminate them. And make the umpires accountable for calls they make. If MLB wants to keep the human element in the game then force the humans to be held accountable for calls they make.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
You Don't Win Super Bowls in August
The NFL lockout is over and teams have started their training camps. Some NFL free agents are still looking for homes and the Eagles have been declared the winners of the free agent signing frenzy that saw over 130 players switch teams in a little over a week. Media comparisons between the Eagles offseason and that of the Miami Heat last year are already making the rounds. I say rubbish. Yes, rubbish. You don't win Super Bowls in August. It has never happened and will never happen. Football is a game of attrition. It is 16 games over 17 weeks of pounding and pain. Players get hurt and others have off years. Before I go anointing the Eagles the 2012 Super Bowl Champion I would like everyone to take a few things under consideration:
-Michael Vick has only played in all 16 games once during his entire career, in 2006. He has played in 15 3 times and last year missed 4 weeks due to injury. He is not an iron man and the Eagles backup is Vince Young who has talent but is new to the system and has had issues in the past showing he can learn a teams system and thrive in it.
-There is a reason they play the games. As a Giants fan I came to truly understand this during the 2007 Super Bowl run. I, like most people in this country, had only a slight glimmer of hope that the Giants would beat the previously unbeaten Patriots. Well, they did and the Giants got the parade. The Patriots will only be remembered as the team that couldn't seal the deal. Like the 2001 Mariners. Nobody remembers they broke the record for the most wins in the AL in a regular season because they didn't win in the playoffs.
-Because of the lockout there is precious little time for new players to learn and adapt to new offensive and defensive schemes. This could possibly hurt teams that are relying on new free agents or rookies to make an immediate impact. Hell, its hard for players to learn new systems with full camps and access to playbooks starting in June and July and it is sometimes evident in the first weeks of a season. Now, they have 1-2 fewer months to get up to speed. This could mean certain players who are expected to make an impact right away might not do so until midway through the season.
-The Eagles start off their year in St. Louis and Atlanta followed by a home game against the Giants. If Philly loses in week 1 to St. Louis there will be a lot of pressure on this team to go into Atlanta and beat a Super Bowl contender in their own building which is tough. Then, they have to face a team that still remembers the sting left from that comeback win last December that knocked the Giants out of the playoffs. You can bet the Giants will be ready for that game. Can you imagine the pressure on the Eagles if they go into the Linc 0-2 with the Giants opening the Season in Philly? It is true that the Eagles could already be flying high and go into that game 2-0 with a confidence that comes with going into Atlanta and beating them at home.
-Much has been made about the new Eagles secondary after the addition of Dominque Rogers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha to Asante Samuel. But their linebacking corps lacks experience and impact. Sure, Casey Matthews has a lot of potential but he won't be a clone of his brother. Of course, as I write this the Eagles might be in negotiations to bring in a linebacker or two to shore up a unit that is, at the current moment, unimpressive.
-Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, two very good players from the Titans and Packers respectively, were brought in to shore up the defensive line which is led by Trent Cole. Cole is a very nice player, and had 10.0 sacks last year and 12.5 the year before. However, Jason Babin is coming off a career year where he recorded 12.5 sacks. He was in Philly in 2009 and despite playing in 16 games, only managed 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Could he have just broken out last year? Yeah, sure he could have. Could he have benefitted from Jeff Fisher's defensive schemes? Yes, that is possible as well. Call me a skeptic, but a guy who suddenly finds his game at 30 in the NFL makes me a little wary. Where was his supposed talent in Houston, Kansas City, and Philly before? As for Cullen Jenkins, he too is coming off of a career year, recording 7 sacks in only 11 games. Not bad. But that was as a 300+ lbs. defensive end. Most likely, Philly will have him play inside a lot more where he will be more susceptible to double teams. He has the power to shed them but, from what I have seen, he doesn't have much finesse. A quick look at Jenkins' sacks shows you he got them playing against some pretty mediocre offensive lines. He got 2 against San Francisco on December 5th, 1 each against Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit. Out of that group Atlanta had the best O-line. Jenkins just doesn't strike me as an impact player. Could I be wrong? Yes. But I am willing to bet Jenkins goes down for at least 2 games with an injury.
-I rely on history an awful lot. History has shown us that teams that bring in a boatload of new faces generally don't click right away. Last year's Miami Heat come to mind. The South Beach Trio had some trouble clicking early on and in the Finals their lack of depth caused them big problems. The 1992 Mets spent a then-ridiculous amount of money of what they hoped was a return to their late 1980's glory. Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray, Bret Saberhagen, and Vince Coleman were brought in and the Mets flopped, becoming more famous for their off-field antics than their on-field heroics. Then there were the Cowboys the last couple of seasons. They were a sexy choice to win it all the last couple of seasons. They failed to live up to expectations. Granted, Andy Reid is not Wade Phillips but sometimes teams struggle to live up to the hype. Then of course, there is the 2008 Giants team. They were great, Super Bowl contenders, then their season went up in the smoke of Plaxico's gun. Or the 2009 Giants that started 5-0 and finished 8-8. Football has a strange aura about it. Sometimes great teams flop while teams emerge from out of nowhere and make a run. The Bears were supposed to be awful last year and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks weren't even supposed to make the playoffs but did so with a losing record and then went out and trounced New Orleans.
You just never know in the NFL. This is why Super Bowl Champions are not crowned in August. The NFL season is long and teams are literally one injury away from being Super Bowl contenders to pretenders to chicken tenders. You play the games for a reason. Go ahead and crow Eagles fans, you have had a great offseason. Sadly, there is no award for good offseasons. Super Bowl titles are earned on the field not by the contracts that are signed.
-Michael Vick has only played in all 16 games once during his entire career, in 2006. He has played in 15 3 times and last year missed 4 weeks due to injury. He is not an iron man and the Eagles backup is Vince Young who has talent but is new to the system and has had issues in the past showing he can learn a teams system and thrive in it.
-There is a reason they play the games. As a Giants fan I came to truly understand this during the 2007 Super Bowl run. I, like most people in this country, had only a slight glimmer of hope that the Giants would beat the previously unbeaten Patriots. Well, they did and the Giants got the parade. The Patriots will only be remembered as the team that couldn't seal the deal. Like the 2001 Mariners. Nobody remembers they broke the record for the most wins in the AL in a regular season because they didn't win in the playoffs.
-Because of the lockout there is precious little time for new players to learn and adapt to new offensive and defensive schemes. This could possibly hurt teams that are relying on new free agents or rookies to make an immediate impact. Hell, its hard for players to learn new systems with full camps and access to playbooks starting in June and July and it is sometimes evident in the first weeks of a season. Now, they have 1-2 fewer months to get up to speed. This could mean certain players who are expected to make an impact right away might not do so until midway through the season.
-The Eagles start off their year in St. Louis and Atlanta followed by a home game against the Giants. If Philly loses in week 1 to St. Louis there will be a lot of pressure on this team to go into Atlanta and beat a Super Bowl contender in their own building which is tough. Then, they have to face a team that still remembers the sting left from that comeback win last December that knocked the Giants out of the playoffs. You can bet the Giants will be ready for that game. Can you imagine the pressure on the Eagles if they go into the Linc 0-2 with the Giants opening the Season in Philly? It is true that the Eagles could already be flying high and go into that game 2-0 with a confidence that comes with going into Atlanta and beating them at home.
-Much has been made about the new Eagles secondary after the addition of Dominque Rogers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha to Asante Samuel. But their linebacking corps lacks experience and impact. Sure, Casey Matthews has a lot of potential but he won't be a clone of his brother. Of course, as I write this the Eagles might be in negotiations to bring in a linebacker or two to shore up a unit that is, at the current moment, unimpressive.
-Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, two very good players from the Titans and Packers respectively, were brought in to shore up the defensive line which is led by Trent Cole. Cole is a very nice player, and had 10.0 sacks last year and 12.5 the year before. However, Jason Babin is coming off a career year where he recorded 12.5 sacks. He was in Philly in 2009 and despite playing in 16 games, only managed 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Could he have just broken out last year? Yeah, sure he could have. Could he have benefitted from Jeff Fisher's defensive schemes? Yes, that is possible as well. Call me a skeptic, but a guy who suddenly finds his game at 30 in the NFL makes me a little wary. Where was his supposed talent in Houston, Kansas City, and Philly before? As for Cullen Jenkins, he too is coming off of a career year, recording 7 sacks in only 11 games. Not bad. But that was as a 300+ lbs. defensive end. Most likely, Philly will have him play inside a lot more where he will be more susceptible to double teams. He has the power to shed them but, from what I have seen, he doesn't have much finesse. A quick look at Jenkins' sacks shows you he got them playing against some pretty mediocre offensive lines. He got 2 against San Francisco on December 5th, 1 each against Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit. Out of that group Atlanta had the best O-line. Jenkins just doesn't strike me as an impact player. Could I be wrong? Yes. But I am willing to bet Jenkins goes down for at least 2 games with an injury.
-I rely on history an awful lot. History has shown us that teams that bring in a boatload of new faces generally don't click right away. Last year's Miami Heat come to mind. The South Beach Trio had some trouble clicking early on and in the Finals their lack of depth caused them big problems. The 1992 Mets spent a then-ridiculous amount of money of what they hoped was a return to their late 1980's glory. Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray, Bret Saberhagen, and Vince Coleman were brought in and the Mets flopped, becoming more famous for their off-field antics than their on-field heroics. Then there were the Cowboys the last couple of seasons. They were a sexy choice to win it all the last couple of seasons. They failed to live up to expectations. Granted, Andy Reid is not Wade Phillips but sometimes teams struggle to live up to the hype. Then of course, there is the 2008 Giants team. They were great, Super Bowl contenders, then their season went up in the smoke of Plaxico's gun. Or the 2009 Giants that started 5-0 and finished 8-8. Football has a strange aura about it. Sometimes great teams flop while teams emerge from out of nowhere and make a run. The Bears were supposed to be awful last year and made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks weren't even supposed to make the playoffs but did so with a losing record and then went out and trounced New Orleans.
You just never know in the NFL. This is why Super Bowl Champions are not crowned in August. The NFL season is long and teams are literally one injury away from being Super Bowl contenders to pretenders to chicken tenders. You play the games for a reason. Go ahead and crow Eagles fans, you have had a great offseason. Sadly, there is no award for good offseasons. Super Bowl titles are earned on the field not by the contracts that are signed.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Trade Deadline Grades for Yankees and Mets
The non-waiver trading deadline in baseball has come and gone. The dust has settled and I'm ready to give out my grades for the two New York teams.
Yankees: Many thought the Yankees needed to do something. Many assumed they would be able to acquire that #2 starting pitcher after Cliff Lee spurned New York dollars for Philadelphia familiarity. It didn't happen. That's not to say it was for lack of trying. The Yankees kicked the tires on former Rockie and current Indian Ubaldo Jimenez. However, the Rockies asked for Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, and Manny Banuelos, or Dellin Betances. The Yankees rightfully said no. Jimenez, according to AL scouts, is not considered #2 starter material for the AL East. He may have been an ace in Colorado but the Al East is a different beast altogether. Then there was Wandy Rodriguez, the Astros lefty who is set to make $39 million over the next few years. He isn't an ace either but he is paid like one and was treated like one by the Astros in trade talks. GM Brian Cashman could have had either of those players but he felt the Yankees young prospects and Phil Hughes were all equal or had the potential to be greater than what was offered. Kudos to Cashman for not letting himself be held hostage. After all, the Rockies got less than what they were asking for from the Yankees in their trade with the Indians despite the fact that the Indians gave up some decent talent but it was nowhere close to the level of talent Cashman was asked to part with. Many of the experts have said the Yankees are losers at this trade deadline but I couldn't disagree more. As a GM of a contending team with a strong farm system you don't go out and make trades for the sake of making trades. Sure, this is the first season since 1999 that the Yankees failed to make any deal but did they really need to? Currently they are in contention with the Boston Red Sox for the AL East crown and they currently hold a comfortable lead in the Wild Card. They have done that with this so-called makeshift rotation behind C.C. Sabathia. The truth of the matter is the talent that was out there at this deadline did not represent enough of an upgrade to deal two prospects in Baseball America's Top 30 (Montero and Banuelos). Another hold up was the denial of the Yankees request to have an MRI taken of Jimenez's shoulder. Why would the Rockies deny an exam on an arm that they wanted so much for? In fact, why would the Rockies trade their ace who is under team control for a few more years and makes less than $5 million annually? It just doesn't add up. Perhaps there is something wrong there or there is something that worried Colorado enough to trade their best starter. The truth of the matter is that this year Ubaldo's numbers have looked eerily similar to A.J. Burnett's and the Yankees already have a Burnett, why mortgage the farm for another one? The experts can call the Yankees losers at the deadline all they want but their farm system has good depth at starting pitching and it should be able to step in if something happens to Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, or Phil Hughes. Because of this I give Cashman and the Yankees an A at this deadline. Refusing to be held hostage for players that did not significantly improve their chances of winning the World Series was the right move.
Mets: The Mets have been in a quandary for most of the season. They have been playing very good baseball and weren't that far out of it. However, GM Sandy Alderson took the Mets job with a plan, to get the Mets back to contention for years, not just a season. He traded away closer Francisco Rodriguez in a salary dump move. This freed up over $15 million next year because of the games finished clause in Rodriguez's contract that he was on pace to surpass. That money can now go towards re-signing Jose Reyes or, if Reyes bolts, bringing in a decent starter like C.J. Wilson. Alderson also traded away Carlos Beltran and, although the move was unpopular with some Mets fans, it brought back Zack Wheeler who could be a potential top-of-the-rotation kind of guy. Coupled with Matt Harvey and the Mets are now looking pretty solid pitching wise for 2013 and beyond. Alderson didn't blow up the team. He could have. But those returns would have been negligible. Instead he took two players who were not part of the long-term future and turned them into financial flexibility and a potential ace. Even if Wheeler doesn't pan out he still did the right thing so this analysis will not change over the years. Going into this season everyone expected the Mets to blow up the team and trade away David Wright and Jose Reyes. That didn't happen because it didn't have to. If the Mets are able to re-sign Jose Reyes and David Wright stays healthy and they get Ike Davis back at 100% next season and Johan Santana is healthy then you have a pretty decent team capable of making a run at a wild card spot. With Johan supposedly coming back this season the Mets can always use this time as an audition for other teams and trade him for younger pitchers if they so desire. The Mets now have options, something they needed. Alderson needed flexibility going into this offseason. He needed to put a little gas in the minor league tank. He achieved all of that. The Mets get an A.
Yankees: Many thought the Yankees needed to do something. Many assumed they would be able to acquire that #2 starting pitcher after Cliff Lee spurned New York dollars for Philadelphia familiarity. It didn't happen. That's not to say it was for lack of trying. The Yankees kicked the tires on former Rockie and current Indian Ubaldo Jimenez. However, the Rockies asked for Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, and Manny Banuelos, or Dellin Betances. The Yankees rightfully said no. Jimenez, according to AL scouts, is not considered #2 starter material for the AL East. He may have been an ace in Colorado but the Al East is a different beast altogether. Then there was Wandy Rodriguez, the Astros lefty who is set to make $39 million over the next few years. He isn't an ace either but he is paid like one and was treated like one by the Astros in trade talks. GM Brian Cashman could have had either of those players but he felt the Yankees young prospects and Phil Hughes were all equal or had the potential to be greater than what was offered. Kudos to Cashman for not letting himself be held hostage. After all, the Rockies got less than what they were asking for from the Yankees in their trade with the Indians despite the fact that the Indians gave up some decent talent but it was nowhere close to the level of talent Cashman was asked to part with. Many of the experts have said the Yankees are losers at this trade deadline but I couldn't disagree more. As a GM of a contending team with a strong farm system you don't go out and make trades for the sake of making trades. Sure, this is the first season since 1999 that the Yankees failed to make any deal but did they really need to? Currently they are in contention with the Boston Red Sox for the AL East crown and they currently hold a comfortable lead in the Wild Card. They have done that with this so-called makeshift rotation behind C.C. Sabathia. The truth of the matter is the talent that was out there at this deadline did not represent enough of an upgrade to deal two prospects in Baseball America's Top 30 (Montero and Banuelos). Another hold up was the denial of the Yankees request to have an MRI taken of Jimenez's shoulder. Why would the Rockies deny an exam on an arm that they wanted so much for? In fact, why would the Rockies trade their ace who is under team control for a few more years and makes less than $5 million annually? It just doesn't add up. Perhaps there is something wrong there or there is something that worried Colorado enough to trade their best starter. The truth of the matter is that this year Ubaldo's numbers have looked eerily similar to A.J. Burnett's and the Yankees already have a Burnett, why mortgage the farm for another one? The experts can call the Yankees losers at the deadline all they want but their farm system has good depth at starting pitching and it should be able to step in if something happens to Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, or Phil Hughes. Because of this I give Cashman and the Yankees an A at this deadline. Refusing to be held hostage for players that did not significantly improve their chances of winning the World Series was the right move.
Mets: The Mets have been in a quandary for most of the season. They have been playing very good baseball and weren't that far out of it. However, GM Sandy Alderson took the Mets job with a plan, to get the Mets back to contention for years, not just a season. He traded away closer Francisco Rodriguez in a salary dump move. This freed up over $15 million next year because of the games finished clause in Rodriguez's contract that he was on pace to surpass. That money can now go towards re-signing Jose Reyes or, if Reyes bolts, bringing in a decent starter like C.J. Wilson. Alderson also traded away Carlos Beltran and, although the move was unpopular with some Mets fans, it brought back Zack Wheeler who could be a potential top-of-the-rotation kind of guy. Coupled with Matt Harvey and the Mets are now looking pretty solid pitching wise for 2013 and beyond. Alderson didn't blow up the team. He could have. But those returns would have been negligible. Instead he took two players who were not part of the long-term future and turned them into financial flexibility and a potential ace. Even if Wheeler doesn't pan out he still did the right thing so this analysis will not change over the years. Going into this season everyone expected the Mets to blow up the team and trade away David Wright and Jose Reyes. That didn't happen because it didn't have to. If the Mets are able to re-sign Jose Reyes and David Wright stays healthy and they get Ike Davis back at 100% next season and Johan Santana is healthy then you have a pretty decent team capable of making a run at a wild card spot. With Johan supposedly coming back this season the Mets can always use this time as an audition for other teams and trade him for younger pitchers if they so desire. The Mets now have options, something they needed. Alderson needed flexibility going into this offseason. He needed to put a little gas in the minor league tank. He achieved all of that. The Mets get an A.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
1st and 10
-The Seahawks have given Sidney Rice a five-year $41 million contract. That's great but who exactly is throwing the ball to him? Tavaris Jackson? Charlie Whitehurst? Good luck Pete Carroll.
-The New England Patriots obtained Albert Haynesworth from the Redskins for a 2013 fifth-round pick. Call me crazy but I think New England just got a steal here. Yes, Haynesworth was a huge baby in Washington but New England will either make him fall in line or cut him. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Haynesworth might have a big year. If he passes the physical which is as big an "if" as Haynesworth himself.
-Reggie Bush is now a Dolphin. Not sure if he is what the team needs. Yes, they needed a running back but Bush is not close to an every down kind of back and if the Dolphins are expecting second-round pick Daniel Thomas to shoulder the load they might have more problems than they think. Trusting a rookie this year to shoulder a significant load is dangerous.
-Is there anyone out there who has gotten less respect than Donovan McNabb? McNabb is now on his third team in three years after the Redskins traded him to Minnesota for two 6th round picks over the next two years. I think McNabb could have a decent season if Minnesota gives him reliable receivers. Letting Sidney Rice walk was not a good start.
-Now that the Pirates are hovering around first place is there any team that is synonymous with futility in sports anymore? For evidence I submit the Cincinnati Bengals. I think Bruce Gradkowski is going to be their starter. Wow. Fun. This whole Carson Palmer saga is like watching two little children fight over toys.
-The Jets have made Santonio Holmes a very rich man. They had no choice. Without him their offense stutters and probably falls on its face.
-I think the Redskins have been in Washington, D.C. too long because they are starting to operate like Congress. They spend money like it isn't theirs on useless projects, for example Albert Haynesworth, and just about every other free agent that walked in the locker room. They often get no results from said spending sprees and then try to fix the problems by going out and throwing money around. They have an owner who doesn't have a clue. They just signed a guy (Donte Stallworth) who killed a man while driving drunk. Yep, maybe the Redskins are truly at home n D.C. At least Congress will go out and root for them.
-The Giants released center Shaun O'Hara this past week and signed former 49er David Baas to a deal. Baas played center last season for the Niners and was a guard before that. It is still unclear if the Giants intend to use Baas as a guard and bring back O'Hara on a cheaper deal or if they will use Baas as center. Despite being injured last year O'Hara was one of the better centers in football and is an all around great guy. Personally, I think the Giants should bring him back but that could just be the fan in me talking.
-Speaking of the Giants, it appears they are one of two teams Plaxico Burress is interested in joining. The Steelers being the other. I don't think anyone would have predicted that. Most experts had him signed up for Philly the second he emerged from prison. I liked Burress during his time with the Giants and would love to see him back. However, I don't know where he fits in with Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and youngsters Ramses Barden and Victor Cruz and Jarrell Jernigan at that spot. The idea of having Burress show Barden how to use his size in traffic is intriguing. Plus, it does create major matchup problems for opposing defenses. Eli can throw 50 times a game and rack up 4,300 yards with an effective Burress teaming up with that receiving corps.
-The Eagles signed Jason Babin, who had 12.5 sacks last year for the Titans. Babin teams up with Trent Cole to give the Eagles a very good defensive end tandem. Just what the rest of the NFC East wanted to hear.
-If the Giants want to contend this year they must sign Mathias Kiwanuka, Steve Smith, and Kevin Boss. All three are extremely talented players at their respective positions and Kiwanuka was leading the team in sacks last year and should be a number one priority along with Smith who also is coming off an injury plagued season. Those injuries should give the Giants a little bit of a discount as those players would have cost the Giants big money over a full season. They need to take advantage of that and get these guys signed.
-The New England Patriots obtained Albert Haynesworth from the Redskins for a 2013 fifth-round pick. Call me crazy but I think New England just got a steal here. Yes, Haynesworth was a huge baby in Washington but New England will either make him fall in line or cut him. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Haynesworth might have a big year. If he passes the physical which is as big an "if" as Haynesworth himself.
-Reggie Bush is now a Dolphin. Not sure if he is what the team needs. Yes, they needed a running back but Bush is not close to an every down kind of back and if the Dolphins are expecting second-round pick Daniel Thomas to shoulder the load they might have more problems than they think. Trusting a rookie this year to shoulder a significant load is dangerous.
-Is there anyone out there who has gotten less respect than Donovan McNabb? McNabb is now on his third team in three years after the Redskins traded him to Minnesota for two 6th round picks over the next two years. I think McNabb could have a decent season if Minnesota gives him reliable receivers. Letting Sidney Rice walk was not a good start.
-Now that the Pirates are hovering around first place is there any team that is synonymous with futility in sports anymore? For evidence I submit the Cincinnati Bengals. I think Bruce Gradkowski is going to be their starter. Wow. Fun. This whole Carson Palmer saga is like watching two little children fight over toys.
-The Jets have made Santonio Holmes a very rich man. They had no choice. Without him their offense stutters and probably falls on its face.
-I think the Redskins have been in Washington, D.C. too long because they are starting to operate like Congress. They spend money like it isn't theirs on useless projects, for example Albert Haynesworth, and just about every other free agent that walked in the locker room. They often get no results from said spending sprees and then try to fix the problems by going out and throwing money around. They have an owner who doesn't have a clue. They just signed a guy (Donte Stallworth) who killed a man while driving drunk. Yep, maybe the Redskins are truly at home n D.C. At least Congress will go out and root for them.
-The Giants released center Shaun O'Hara this past week and signed former 49er David Baas to a deal. Baas played center last season for the Niners and was a guard before that. It is still unclear if the Giants intend to use Baas as a guard and bring back O'Hara on a cheaper deal or if they will use Baas as center. Despite being injured last year O'Hara was one of the better centers in football and is an all around great guy. Personally, I think the Giants should bring him back but that could just be the fan in me talking.
-Speaking of the Giants, it appears they are one of two teams Plaxico Burress is interested in joining. The Steelers being the other. I don't think anyone would have predicted that. Most experts had him signed up for Philly the second he emerged from prison. I liked Burress during his time with the Giants and would love to see him back. However, I don't know where he fits in with Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and youngsters Ramses Barden and Victor Cruz and Jarrell Jernigan at that spot. The idea of having Burress show Barden how to use his size in traffic is intriguing. Plus, it does create major matchup problems for opposing defenses. Eli can throw 50 times a game and rack up 4,300 yards with an effective Burress teaming up with that receiving corps.
-The Eagles signed Jason Babin, who had 12.5 sacks last year for the Titans. Babin teams up with Trent Cole to give the Eagles a very good defensive end tandem. Just what the rest of the NFC East wanted to hear.
-If the Giants want to contend this year they must sign Mathias Kiwanuka, Steve Smith, and Kevin Boss. All three are extremely talented players at their respective positions and Kiwanuka was leading the team in sacks last year and should be a number one priority along with Smith who also is coming off an injury plagued season. Those injuries should give the Giants a little bit of a discount as those players would have cost the Giants big money over a full season. They need to take advantage of that and get these guys signed.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Trade Candidates
The July 31st, non-waiver trading deadline is quickly approaching so I thought I would take a look at some of the players who are being mentioned in rumors.
B.J. Upton, OF, Rays: Upton was once a highly touted prospect, showing that he possessed five tools. Now, his power is kind of there, his speed is still there, but his ability to hit for average has vanished. Earlier in the year I labeled Upton as one of the most overrated players in the game. So far this season he has only proven me correct by hitting .229 with 15 homers and 52 RBI's. He also has 13 doubles and no triples while stealing 23 bags. Upton has regressed almost every year after his stellar 2007 campaign where he hit .300 with 24 homers and 82 RBI's. He plays a decent centerfield, though not quite gold-glove caliber. The Washington Nationals are said to be lusting after Upton and, according to reports, would offer up the moon for him. To me that is just silly. Washington's best chance for success if further development of their young players, not trading them. Sure, Upton is only 26 but he has been in the league since he was 19 and has had seven years to prove something. The NAtionals would be wise to stay their course. They have a progressing Danny Espinosa who is being mentioned for NL Rookie of the Year, a rehabbing Stephen Strasburg who could return in September, the top prospect in all of baseball in Bryce Harper at AA, and a wealth of other prospects including Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore, Brad Peacock, Tom Milone, and a wealth of others. In the next five years this team should develop into a power in the NL. Why risk that by trading for a player who has only regressed every year since 2007-08? All Upton is is a strikeout waiting to happen. If they can get him without giving up major prospects or anyone on their current roster then I would give it a try. Maybe a change of scenery would help. More likely it won't. the only thing that will help Upton is Upton and I don't think he cares enough to do that.
Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: Beltran is enjoying a resurgence this season. He leads the NL in doubles and has shown he can still hit the home run and his knees are holding up. The Mets are in limbo right now, not fully committed to a rebuild but not exactly stocking up for a stretch run. The Mets are stuck in a limbo of uncertainty. Injuries have derailed what could have been a surprise season for them. Maybe not a playoff berth but a winning record wasn't out of the question. Still isn't. However, Beltran is 34 and entering free agency this offseason. The Mets need to get something in return for him since he doesn't fit into their long-term plans. Teams like the Giants, Phillies, Braves, Pirates, Indians, and Rangers all could use Beltran's pop. The Mets are trying to pry a top prospect out of the deal since Beltran really is the best bat on the market right now. Getting a key player in return for Beltran is imperative for the Mets. They need someone who will be able to step in in a year or two, whether its a pitcher or position player, and contribute.
Mike Adams, RP, Padres: Adams is viewed as the best relief option on the market and the Padres are asking a lot in return for him. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has maintained that he won't go crazy for relief pitching this year, especially with Rafael Soriano coming off the DL this week. There are a lot of teams that could use Adams as either a set-up man or closer who might overpay for him. Personally, I'm not a big fan of giving out huge contracts or offering up big-time prospects for relievers. Look at the Yankees history with big name relievers to find out why. Relievers are probably the most volatile commodity in baseball, dominating for a year or a few and then flaming out. Rare is the Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, or Dennis Eckersley. With that being said, there are still team who have a real shot at making the playoffs this year who could use someone like Adams. The Pirates could always use someone to set-up for Joel Hanrahan who is enjoying a fine season. The Cardinals bullpen has been something of a spectacle this season as well and they could use him. Both the Cardinals and Pirates are tied with the Brewers for first place with the Reds breathing down all their necks and the Brewers now have Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford to close out games for them. Adams in St. Louis could mean the difference between playoffs or golf.
Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals: Clippard is a wins vulture, somehow escaping even bad outings with a "W." A new baseball term has even come into fashion in his honor, "Clip" as in clip the win. He isn't dominating but gets the job done by keeping hitters off balance with a variety of breaking stuff and a decent enough fastball. Clippard is still young and is coming off his first All-Star Game appearance so he could bring in a decent prospect or two. The Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, and a slew of other teams have shown an interest. I personally like Clippard having seen him pitch at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and meeting him a few times. However, being a nice guy and good pitcher in the minors are on the opposite pole of reality. Clippard is still a good set-up man but, like with Adams, I think the Nationals will have to be very pleased with the package they take away from the deal which would prohibit me from trying to acquire him, especially when combined with his mediocre performance level in high leverage situations.
Heath Bell, RP, Padres: Bell is the closer in San Diego but is not their best reliever (that would be the aforementioned Mike Adams). Bell would like to stay in the NL but you can't always get what you want. All the teams previously mentioned in the Adams and Clippard paragraphs would be in play for Bell as well. Since he would cost less in terms of prospects than Adams, I would target him instead if I'm the Cardinals GM. He has shown he can close and the cost is lower. In a bad economy, like this one for available players of all positions, you sometimes have to clip coupons and use them wisely. With Adams overshadowing Bell in drool factor among teams someone like the Cardinals just might be able to swoop in and grab Bell with their coupons.
The trade market this year is not as cut and dry as in years past. There are a ton of teams that are hovering around respectability that will prohibit them from becoming sellers. Hell, even the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place in a tight race in the NL Central where three teams share the lead and the Reds are only 3 games out in 2nd. Not even the Twins, with their 47-54 record are conceding defeat. There is a complete lack of depth right now in the market. That's not to say trades won't develop. Hell, the Marlins could trade Hanley Ramirez tomorrow, you just can't predict it. Either way, this is among the best periods in all of sports and we should all sit back and enjoy the ride. Hopefully our favorite teams don't become stupid and trade their best prospects for spare parts.
B.J. Upton, OF, Rays: Upton was once a highly touted prospect, showing that he possessed five tools. Now, his power is kind of there, his speed is still there, but his ability to hit for average has vanished. Earlier in the year I labeled Upton as one of the most overrated players in the game. So far this season he has only proven me correct by hitting .229 with 15 homers and 52 RBI's. He also has 13 doubles and no triples while stealing 23 bags. Upton has regressed almost every year after his stellar 2007 campaign where he hit .300 with 24 homers and 82 RBI's. He plays a decent centerfield, though not quite gold-glove caliber. The Washington Nationals are said to be lusting after Upton and, according to reports, would offer up the moon for him. To me that is just silly. Washington's best chance for success if further development of their young players, not trading them. Sure, Upton is only 26 but he has been in the league since he was 19 and has had seven years to prove something. The NAtionals would be wise to stay their course. They have a progressing Danny Espinosa who is being mentioned for NL Rookie of the Year, a rehabbing Stephen Strasburg who could return in September, the top prospect in all of baseball in Bryce Harper at AA, and a wealth of other prospects including Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore, Brad Peacock, Tom Milone, and a wealth of others. In the next five years this team should develop into a power in the NL. Why risk that by trading for a player who has only regressed every year since 2007-08? All Upton is is a strikeout waiting to happen. If they can get him without giving up major prospects or anyone on their current roster then I would give it a try. Maybe a change of scenery would help. More likely it won't. the only thing that will help Upton is Upton and I don't think he cares enough to do that.
Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets: Beltran is enjoying a resurgence this season. He leads the NL in doubles and has shown he can still hit the home run and his knees are holding up. The Mets are in limbo right now, not fully committed to a rebuild but not exactly stocking up for a stretch run. The Mets are stuck in a limbo of uncertainty. Injuries have derailed what could have been a surprise season for them. Maybe not a playoff berth but a winning record wasn't out of the question. Still isn't. However, Beltran is 34 and entering free agency this offseason. The Mets need to get something in return for him since he doesn't fit into their long-term plans. Teams like the Giants, Phillies, Braves, Pirates, Indians, and Rangers all could use Beltran's pop. The Mets are trying to pry a top prospect out of the deal since Beltran really is the best bat on the market right now. Getting a key player in return for Beltran is imperative for the Mets. They need someone who will be able to step in in a year or two, whether its a pitcher or position player, and contribute.
Mike Adams, RP, Padres: Adams is viewed as the best relief option on the market and the Padres are asking a lot in return for him. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has maintained that he won't go crazy for relief pitching this year, especially with Rafael Soriano coming off the DL this week. There are a lot of teams that could use Adams as either a set-up man or closer who might overpay for him. Personally, I'm not a big fan of giving out huge contracts or offering up big-time prospects for relievers. Look at the Yankees history with big name relievers to find out why. Relievers are probably the most volatile commodity in baseball, dominating for a year or a few and then flaming out. Rare is the Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, or Dennis Eckersley. With that being said, there are still team who have a real shot at making the playoffs this year who could use someone like Adams. The Pirates could always use someone to set-up for Joel Hanrahan who is enjoying a fine season. The Cardinals bullpen has been something of a spectacle this season as well and they could use him. Both the Cardinals and Pirates are tied with the Brewers for first place with the Reds breathing down all their necks and the Brewers now have Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford to close out games for them. Adams in St. Louis could mean the difference between playoffs or golf.
Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals: Clippard is a wins vulture, somehow escaping even bad outings with a "W." A new baseball term has even come into fashion in his honor, "Clip" as in clip the win. He isn't dominating but gets the job done by keeping hitters off balance with a variety of breaking stuff and a decent enough fastball. Clippard is still young and is coming off his first All-Star Game appearance so he could bring in a decent prospect or two. The Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, and a slew of other teams have shown an interest. I personally like Clippard having seen him pitch at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and meeting him a few times. However, being a nice guy and good pitcher in the minors are on the opposite pole of reality. Clippard is still a good set-up man but, like with Adams, I think the Nationals will have to be very pleased with the package they take away from the deal which would prohibit me from trying to acquire him, especially when combined with his mediocre performance level in high leverage situations.
Heath Bell, RP, Padres: Bell is the closer in San Diego but is not their best reliever (that would be the aforementioned Mike Adams). Bell would like to stay in the NL but you can't always get what you want. All the teams previously mentioned in the Adams and Clippard paragraphs would be in play for Bell as well. Since he would cost less in terms of prospects than Adams, I would target him instead if I'm the Cardinals GM. He has shown he can close and the cost is lower. In a bad economy, like this one for available players of all positions, you sometimes have to clip coupons and use them wisely. With Adams overshadowing Bell in drool factor among teams someone like the Cardinals just might be able to swoop in and grab Bell with their coupons.
The trade market this year is not as cut and dry as in years past. There are a ton of teams that are hovering around respectability that will prohibit them from becoming sellers. Hell, even the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place in a tight race in the NL Central where three teams share the lead and the Reds are only 3 games out in 2nd. Not even the Twins, with their 47-54 record are conceding defeat. There is a complete lack of depth right now in the market. That's not to say trades won't develop. Hell, the Marlins could trade Hanley Ramirez tomorrow, you just can't predict it. Either way, this is among the best periods in all of sports and we should all sit back and enjoy the ride. Hopefully our favorite teams don't become stupid and trade their best prospects for spare parts.
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