Trade Candidates

The July 31st, non-waiver trading deadline is quickly approaching so I thought I would take a look at some of the players who are being mentioned in rumors.

B.J. Upton, OF, Rays:  Upton was once a highly touted prospect, showing that he possessed five tools.  Now, his power is kind of there, his speed is still there, but his ability to hit for average has vanished.  Earlier in the year I labeled Upton as one of the most overrated players in the game.  So far this season he has only proven me correct by hitting .229 with 15 homers and 52 RBI's.  He also has 13 doubles and no triples while stealing 23 bags.  Upton has regressed almost every year after his stellar 2007 campaign where he hit .300 with 24 homers and 82 RBI's.  He plays a decent centerfield, though not quite gold-glove caliber.  The Washington Nationals are said to be lusting after Upton and, according to reports, would offer up the moon for him.  To me that is just silly.  Washington's best chance for success if further development of their young players, not trading them.  Sure, Upton is only 26 but he has been in the league since he was 19 and has had seven years to prove something.  The NAtionals would be wise to stay their course.  They have a progressing Danny Espinosa who is being mentioned for NL Rookie of the Year, a rehabbing Stephen Strasburg who could return in September, the top prospect in all of baseball in Bryce Harper at AA, and a wealth of other prospects including Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore, Brad Peacock, Tom Milone, and a wealth of others.  In the next five years this team should develop into a power in the NL.  Why risk that by trading for a player who has only regressed every year since 2007-08?  All Upton is is a strikeout waiting to happen.  If they can get him without giving up major prospects or anyone on their current roster then I would give it a try.  Maybe a change of scenery would help.  More likely it won't.  the only thing that will help Upton is Upton and I don't think he cares enough to do that.


Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets:  Beltran is enjoying a resurgence this season.  He leads the NL in doubles and has shown he can still hit the home run and his knees are holding up.  The Mets are in limbo right now, not fully committed to a rebuild but not exactly stocking up for a stretch run.  The Mets are stuck in a limbo of uncertainty.  Injuries have derailed what could have been a surprise season for them.  Maybe not a playoff berth but a winning record wasn't out of the question.  Still isn't.  However, Beltran is 34 and entering free agency this offseason.  The Mets need to get something in return for him since he doesn't fit into their long-term plans.  Teams like the Giants, Phillies, Braves, Pirates, Indians, and Rangers all could use Beltran's pop.  The Mets are trying to pry a top prospect out of the deal since Beltran really is the best bat on the market right now.  Getting a key player in return for Beltran is imperative for the Mets.  They need someone who will be able to step in in a year or two, whether its a pitcher or position player, and contribute.

Mike Adams, RP, Padres:  Adams is viewed as the best relief option on the market and the Padres are asking a lot in return for him.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman has maintained that he won't go crazy for relief pitching this year, especially with Rafael Soriano coming off the DL this week.  There are a lot of teams that could use Adams as either a set-up man or closer who might overpay for him.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of giving out huge contracts or offering up big-time prospects for relievers.  Look at the Yankees history with big name relievers to find out why.  Relievers are probably the most volatile commodity in baseball, dominating for a year or a few and then flaming out.  Rare is the Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, or Dennis Eckersley.  With that being said, there are still team who have a real shot at making the playoffs this year who could use someone like Adams.  The Pirates could always use someone to set-up for Joel Hanrahan who is enjoying a fine season.  The Cardinals bullpen has been something of a spectacle this season as well and they could use him.  Both the Cardinals and Pirates are tied with the Brewers for first place with the Reds breathing down all their necks and the Brewers now have Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford to close out games for them.  Adams in St. Louis could mean the difference between playoffs or golf.

Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals:  Clippard is a wins vulture, somehow escaping even bad outings with a "W."  A new baseball term has even come into fashion in his honor, "Clip" as in clip the win.  He isn't dominating but gets the job done by keeping hitters off balance with a variety of breaking stuff and a decent enough fastball.  Clippard is still young and is coming off his first All-Star Game appearance so he could bring in a decent prospect or two.  The Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, and a slew of other teams have shown an interest.  I personally like Clippard having seen him pitch at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and meeting him a few times.  However, being a nice guy and good pitcher in the minors are on the opposite pole of reality.  Clippard is still a good set-up man but, like with Adams, I think the Nationals will have to be very pleased with the package they take away from the deal which would prohibit me from trying to acquire him, especially when combined with his mediocre performance level in high leverage situations.

Heath Bell, RP, Padres:  Bell is the closer in San Diego but is not their best reliever (that would be the aforementioned Mike Adams).  Bell would like to stay in the NL but you can't always get what you want.  All the teams previously mentioned in the Adams and Clippard paragraphs would be in play for Bell as well.  Since he would cost less in terms of prospects than Adams, I would target him instead if I'm the Cardinals GM.  He has shown he can close and the cost is lower.  In a bad economy, like this one for available players of all positions, you sometimes have to clip coupons and use them wisely.  With Adams overshadowing Bell in drool factor among teams someone like the Cardinals just might be able to swoop in and grab Bell with their coupons.


The trade market this year is not as cut and dry as in years past.  There are a ton of teams that are hovering around respectability that will prohibit them from becoming sellers.  Hell, even the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place in a tight race in the NL Central where three teams share the lead and the Reds are only 3 games out in 2nd.  Not even the Twins, with their 47-54 record are conceding defeat.  There is a complete lack of depth right now in the market.  That's not to say trades won't develop.  Hell, the Marlins could trade Hanley Ramirez tomorrow, you just can't predict it.  Either way, this is among the best periods in all of sports and we should all sit back and enjoy the ride.  Hopefully our favorite teams don't become stupid and trade their best prospects for spare parts.

Trade Candidates

July is almost here and the MLB rumor mill is starting to spin up. If you listen closely you can hear the gears starting to grind. This year things might be a little different. It seems as if some parody has crept into the Major League Baseball landscape making trading partners that much harder to find for teams that want to bolster their roster for playoff push. Even the 32-44 Minnesota Twins have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs right now, or maybe they did before their entire outfield landed on the DL and they lost five straight. Houston, San Diego, the Chicago Cubs, and perhaps the Royals all figure to be sellers when the dust settles. The Mets can go either way, as can the Pirates, Marlins and Dodgers. The White Sox could also look to unload a player or two. Well, let's take an early look at some of the guys who might be moved before or at the deadline.

Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs. Dempster figures to be one of the few starters put on the market with a proven track record. He can strike hitters out, has shown he can win as a starter (48 wins over the last 4 seasons) and would fit in nicely in just about any needy contenders rotation, especially at the back end. He is 34 years old and holds a player option for next season. He signed a 3-year deal worth $38 million which isn't terrible in today's market for a #2-3 starting pitcher. The numbers are eerily similar to A.J. Burnett, only Dempster used to be a pretty good closer at one point. A team like the Yankees might be looking for pitching help. Phil Hughes is still on the DL, though he is rehabbing right now and cold return in a couple of weeks. Bartolo Colon is on the DL with a leg injury but he hasn't exactly had the best track record in recent years in regards to health. The Yankees have been connected to Dempster once this season, right around the Yankees visit to Wrigley. I would expect Dempster to exercise his right to become a free agent as he looks for one last good contract so he will be a rental player and shouldn't command a ton in prospects. Other potential suitors could be the Cleveland Indians where veteran presence in a rotation filled with unproven kids and Fausto Carmona is needed for a playoff push; the Arizona Diamondbacks whom nobody expected to contend and whose rotation is led by Ian Kennedy, a nice pitcher but not an ace; and the Texas Rangers who might be looking for some pitching help after Alexi Ogando has been getting rocked in his past couple of starts and might be better suited for the bullpen.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mets. K-Rod has been having himself an excellent season so far. Bullpen help always seem to be a number one need of most playoff bound teams and adding K-Rod to either set-up or close games would be a huge bonus, at least in theory. K-Rod has announced he would be willing to set-up for a contender so that automatically put the Yankees in the conversation but I don't see them getting involved. The Yankees already have Rafael Soriano under contract to provide setup help for Mariano Rivera. Instead, I see the Texas Rangers being the biggest suitor for K-Rod. They can have him set-up this year and then move to the closer spot next year while shifting Neftali Feliz to a starting spot. The Boston Red Sox might be another landing spot for K-Rod. The Red Sox bullpen has been pounded by injuries and with the future status of Jonathan Papelbon up in the air the Red Sox might decide to pull the trigger on a deal here.

Heath Bell, RP, Padres. Another closer for a team out of contention, Bell has been consistent over the past few years and might be one of baseballs most underrated closers. Since the Phillies can't hope to pry K-Rod away from the Mets, Bell might be the apple of their eye. Ryan Madson has been filling in very well for Brad Lidge going 15 for 16 in save chances. However, I don't know if the Phillies are better with Madson closing over Heath Bell. Acquiring Bell would enable the Phillies to slide Madson into a setup role (or to place Bell there if they so desire) and strengthen a so-so bullpen. And, if Lidge makes it back there is another reliable arm with playoff experience to add to the mix. The Cardinals could also be in the market for Bell. Currently the Cardinals are relying on Fernando Salas to close their games. He has been good but isn't a known entity like Bell. The Rangers could also be in the mix.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and figure to be sellers once their ownership situation gets settled. Rodriguez is probably their best trade chip and could command a nice haul of prospects to help rebuild. The Yankees might be in the mix since he represents a longer term option than Dempster and is two years younger than Dempster. The problem is finding out who is running the Astros and dealing with them. The Astros will treat Rodriguez like an ace in negotiations when he is more like #2-3 guy. I don't know if the Yankees would be willing to pay the ransom price for him but with few starting pitchers of value on the market they might have no choice if they don't see any options in the minors.

Michael Bourn, OF, Astros. Speed is reemerging in baseball and few possess the talents of Bourn who is leading the majors in stolen bases. He can hit leadoff and immediately get into scoring position. He has ten steals of third among his 33 stolen bases on the year so he is a threat. He is decednt in getting on base, doing so at a .351 clip so far this season. Bourn would be a boon to just about any team right now with a slim margin of making the playoffs. However, you can forget about the Yankees and Red Sox getting involved, they already have a quite a few good outfielders on their rosters. The Indians have a need in the outfield where Austin Kearns and his sub-.200 average are patrolling the outfield with Shelley Duncan the backup, or vice versa. Michael Brantley is ok as a leadoff guy but doesn't have nearly the speed and dynamic ability to change the game as Bourn does.

Brett Myers, SP, Astros. Diminished velocity and extreme fly ball rate are not exactly formulas for success. Myers has survived due to, well I don't know how he has survived...perhaps lack of options in Houston. Myers is only 30, and is currently sporting a 4.65 ERA in the pitcher friendly National League. His fastball sits around 87 MPH and has served up 1.81 HR/9 this year. To make him even more prohibitive, he is due to earn $11 million next season and can be bought out for $3 million after 2012, or his option can be picked up for a cool $10 million. I really don't see a good landing spot for Myers. The numbers don't add up and the Astros are sure to treat him like the ace he was last year but is definitely not this year. Maybe, if the Astros pick up a portion of the salary and don't ask for a lot in prospects they might be able to find a taker.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets. If the Mets decide to become sellers, Beltran would be one of their biggest trade chips and one who might garner the most interest. Several teams in need of some offensive pop could jump into the Beltran pool. Teams like the Twins, Rangers (although they seem set at OF they do have some injury prone OF'ers), Giants, and maybe even the Yankees could put their toes in the water.

Jose Reyes, SS, Mets. Reyes said he won't discuss a contract extension during the season so he is primed to hit the open market. The Mets right now are hovering around .500 and trading Reyes, who is arguably the National League's most dynamic player, would send shockwaves through an already shellshocked fanbase. If the Mets feel they can get better value than the two first round picks in next year's draft then they should bite. Still, Reyes is just a rental player so the chances of finding someone willing to take on a player who has announced he will test the market are going to be slim at that price. The Reyes situation mirrors the Mets season, in or out? Contending or not? Trade or no trade? Perhaps the Mets should hold onto Reyes and get the two draft picks. Or maybe they should trade him. Thankfully, I'm not Sandy Alderson whom I do not envy in this situation.

There are plenty more players out there who could make an impact at the deadline. Jason Kubel of the Twins, Joakim Soria and Jeff Francoueur of the Royals, and Mark Beurhle, Edwin Jackson, and John Danks of the White Sox all could be major chips cashed in by their respective teams. I will revisit this subject later.