The Yankees have a lot of money coming off the books in 2009 and they would be wise to let most of it go. I am not much of a fan of Bobby Abreu making $15 million at 35 years old. As much as Xavier Nady has been a gritty, gutsy player, the Yankees have left themselves with little choice but to play Nady in right and let Abreu go. That is a lot of walks going out the window right there but I think Nady's defense is better. There were times I cringed when I saw Abreu tracking down fly balls in right field. Nady is cheaper, is under contract, is younger, and proved he can help shoulder an offensive load in New York with both the Mets and Yankees. Nady is my right fielder for better or worse.
The catching situation kind of blew up in the Yankees face this year. Jorge's shoulder finally blew out and it cost him all but 51 games. this is not what the Yankees were expecting from one of their cornerstones, even if he is a 36 year old catcher. I was a little wary about giving Posada a 4 year deal but he was deserving of it as much as anyone so it was easy to overlook. Posada still has a finger on the pulse of this team but I think his days behind the plate are just about done. At the same time, I don't think he can hack it as an everyday first baseman. Posada should split time between catcher and DH, assuming of course that his shoulder is healthy for catching. Jose Molina proved himself to be one of the finest defensive catchers in the game and was adept at handling a mish-mash pitching staff. These qualities make up for what he lacks in everyday offensive output. With Chad Moeller, Chris Stewart, and other younger options hanging around the minors I think the Yankees can afford to go with Molina and Posada and if injuries hit again patch up a hole with a retread a la this past season.
First base is in need of an upgrade. Don Mattingly, Tino Martinez, and Jason Giambi. Well, until Giambi defense was a priority at this position. Watching Giambi play first was somtimes amazing (we all wondered how he made a certain play every now and then) while at the same time watching lions feed on helpless antelope. He was terrible in the field. His bat has slowed but et he still can't hit to left field unless by accident. Giambi has run his course with the Yankees and it is time for the Yankees to invest in some youth and some defense. Enter Mark Teixiera. The Yankees need to make him their #1 priority, not C.C. Sabathia (I will explain this in a minute).
The offensive decline of Robinson Cano was one of baseball's great mysteries this season. The guy went from .300+ to barely hitting .260. He doesn't walk enough to offset this drop-off in offensive production. I had read warnings from professional scouts that warned against this stuff but I chose to ignore it, as I was warm and comfy in the .300 comfort blanket. The Yankees would be wise to shop Cano, maybe for a starting pitcher if the need arises or for another second baseman. I heard Brian Roberts' name mentioned but I don't know if I like him in the long run. If he is traded for pitching I don't know who works into second. Wilson Betemit has not proven much but he was never really given a shot either. Maybe the best option would be to get Cano some instruction over the winter on the strike zone. It also might behoove the Yankees to tell him to stay away from the partying at night.
The outfield situation with the Yankees is insane. No true center fielder, no everyday left fielder, and a right fielder who had a good season split between the Pirates and Yankees. Oh, what a mess. Johnny Damon was very good this season, hitting over .300 and coming through several times in the clutch. He has one more year on his contract and I think the Yanks can get by with him in left in a platoon. Hideki Matsui, the Japanese Iron Horse finally broke down. His knees, after years of wear and tear failed him. He still can hit but I don't think he can handle the field anymore on a regular basis. The Yankees should have traded him this offseason for Noah Lowry, who despite being lost for the season would offer more hope as a 28 year old pitcher coming off of injury than a 35 year old somewhere fielder with bad knees. Perhaps it is not too late to see what the Yankees can get for Matsui. Perhaps someone will take him off their hands.
While the rebuilding process is underway it might be prudent for the Yankees to approach Derek Jeter and see what the options are in the not too distant future. A move to the outfield in a year or two would make sense for all involved. I would let him play shortstop in the inaugural season at the new Yankee Stadium but not much beyond. Jeter, as Captain, has to take the lead and see he is not helping by staying there until he is buried there. The process should begin now and a transition going on over a couple of years would benefit everyone, Jeter especially.
Alex Rodriguez isn't going anywhere no matter what anyone thinks of him. He seems to be one of these guys that has a great year followed by a down year. Aside from hitting in the clutch this was actually a decent year for A-Rod. He hit over .300 (as of this post) and was second in home runs in the AL. He also missed time with injury. If his recent track record is any indicator he will bounce back big time next season. Having a Mark Teixiera in the lineup next season would greatly improve A-Rod's bounce back chances.
Melky Cabrera was awful this season. He went down the same road Cano went down and regressed big time. Melky could barely hit above .230 for much of the season and earned himself a much delayed demotion to AAA. Nothing Melky did this season was done correctly, or even with a touch of luck. If he hit the ball hard it would be right at someone. More often than not, however, the ball was often hit on the ground for a double play. Brett Gardner was brought up in his place and showed signs of being a very good center fielder and base stealer. Gardner is always a slow starter at every level, the majors being no exception. I expect he will light it up in Spring Training, hitting above .300 and earn the center fielder spot where he will go on to hit .280+ next season while drawing more walks in a week than Melky did in 2 years. Gardner doesn't hit home runs but he will be standing on 3rd base an awful lot and his speed changes the dynamic of a game.
The starting pitching, which was supposed to carry the Yankees into the future, hit a major road block. Joba Chamberlain was juggled between the bullpen and rotation and back to the bullpen after some shoulder tendinitis put him on the shelf for a spell. I say Joba is a starter and the Yankees need to leave him in one role. There are enough relievers and options in the bullpen. Joba is an ace, period. You don't put Johan Santana in the bullpen because he pitches well. Leave Joba in the rotation, let his arm adjust to it, or rather readjust to it as he was a starter all his Yankee career until last year.
Cut Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy some slack. These kids had enormous expectations thrust upon them based on a half season of work. Phil Hughes was the youngest pitcher in the big leagues this year when he was on the mound. Injuries cut his season mercifully short but he did pitch much better in his first game back from the DL. Ian Kennedy was the guy with no luck this season. He was the victim of tiny strike zones early on and was forced to put the ball over the plate. The result was a lack of confidence. The stuff is there and I think he will be a very good 3rd or 4th starter. He just needs some time to develop but he will be a Yankee for years to come.
C.C. Sabathia is the target of many teams desires. However, I am getting more alarmed at his size and increasing workload on his arm. Last year he pitched a career high in innings, especially in the playoffs, and got off to a dreadful start. The Brewers are seemingly riding this horse into the playoffs come hell of high water. It is likely to take close to $200 million to secure Sabathia, a hefty price for a hefty arm. He is building a house on the West Coast and I think the Dodgers and Angels will make huge plays for him with him finally deciding on the Dodgers. The Yanks will be wise to stay away from him... of course I could be wrong. Nah.
Bid with caution on the rest of the pitching market. A.J. Burnett, Ben Sheets, Ryan Dempster, and Oliver Perez forming a high-risk, high reward group. Let's not forget that Chien Ming Wang is coming back so an additional 12 wins can be penciled in over Sidney Ponson or Darrell Rasner. Those 12 wins mean a playoff berth for the Yanks this season. The Yankees, right now, could field a 2009 rotation of Joba Chamberlain, Chien Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy or Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano. Yes, I said Carl Pavano. Pavano is similar to every pitcher on the market this year. He has a long injury history, like Burnett and Sheets, and has won 18 games, like Burnett has done this season. Pavano, when healthy, has shown he can pitch a little at the back end of a rotation. When compared to what Sheets and Burnett would cost (also factoring in draft picks), Pavano and his $11 million option are relatively cheap. If the Yankess re-sign Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte, they could pick up Pavano's option and let Hughes and/or Kennedy develop one more season, unmolested and without pressure in AAA. Believe it or not $11 million for Pavano and his high risk/high reward makes more sense than Burnett and Sheets and their $23 million high risk/high reward.
Still scared by Pavano? Well, Humberto Sanchez made his major league debut in September. you might remember him as the main piece of the Gary Sheffield trade. He is now recovered from Tommy John surgery and could make an impact next year as a bullpen guy or spot starter. He might need a year of polishing in AAA but he should contribute soon.
I'll get into free agency and the Yankees more in another blog. Let me leave you with a list of prospects to watch in 2009, some of whom might make the team out of Spring Training:
Austin Jackson, CF: Needs a year at AAA, the best athlete in the Yanks' system. Could be a mid-season call up or even make the team out of ST, like he almost did last season.
Humberto Sanchez, P: Fully recovered, will build up arm strength at AAA before Cashman and Girardi find a spot for him.
Andrew Brackman, P: 6'10" of pure pitching hell. This guy hit 100 MPH on the gun before Tommy John surgery KO'd his first pro season. He could be an ace or future closer. Scouts are high on him.
Phil Coke, P: Could he finally be the answer to years of searching for a viable lefty out of the pen?
Francisco Cervelli, C: His year was cut short by injury but the Yankees are high on him, high enough to call him up in September of this year to give him a taste.
Pat Venditte, P: This guy became a YouTube sensation because he pitches from both sides, lefty and righty. He also pitches from both sides well. In 32.2 innings he posted a 0.83 ERA and 23 saves at Staten Island. Not a bad start. I wonder if he would need to go on the DL if one arm got hurt or if he would just switch. I love bionic pitchers!
Dellin Betances, P: This tower of a kid struck out 135 batters in 115.1 innings. Could be a factor in a couple of years. Only 20 years old.
Jeff Marquez, P: His move to AAA didn't go as planned. He did rebound at AA and could factor in with the 2009 Yankees if injuries hit again.
YANKEES IN 2009 and BEYOND!
